轉型正義是否提升民眾對政治機構之信任？—以拉丁美洲12國為例(1996-2010)

Do Transitional Justice Measures Enhance Institutional Trust? -An Empirical Study of 12 Countries in Latin America (1996-2010)

李冠霆(Kuan-Ting Li)

指導教授 ： 蔡季廷

共同指導教授 ： 顏永銘(Yung-Ming Yen)

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201900788

摘要

在第三波民主化後，拉丁美洲國家脫離過去的威權政體，朝民主社會邁進。對一個新興民主政權來說，建立民眾對政治機構的信任，是讓政權能否長久維持下去的重要因素。因此，這些國家能否順利實施轉型正義，弭平人權受難者在威權時代所受到的傷害，進一步影響對政府的評價，便顯得非常重要。雖然對於一個新興民主政權而言，要實施哪種轉型正義機制，仍必須面臨正義與和平的兩難，然而在國際組織、人權團體的呼籲下，越來越多國家開始願意採取課責程度較高的機制，並形成一股「正義流瀑」的趨勢。

本文首先回顧了轉型正義、政治機構信任與拉丁美洲民主化脈絡的相關研究；接著下來，本文從文獻當中，梳理出刑事審判有助於民眾對司法機構信任，以及複合轉型正義機制有助於民眾對總體政治機構信任，這兩個主要假設。此外，本文同時將威權政體類型設為調節變項，觀察威權遺緒所造成之影響。最後，本文彙整拉丁美洲12國的政治機構信任數據，以及轉型正義實施情況的資料，利用廣義有序勝算對數模型，針對前述議題進行分析。

結果發現，實施刑事審判確實有助於提升民眾對司法機構的信任。然而，國際轉型正義中心所倡議的「全面途徑」並無助於提升拉美地區民眾對整體政治機構之信任。此外，本文也發現威權遺緒的強弱確實會影響民眾對政治機構的評價。根據研究發現，本文將能藉此彌補既有文獻在此議題研究上之不足，同時也可以透過拉丁美洲地區的經驗，作為我國未來實施轉型正義的借鏡。

關鍵字

轉型正義 ； 拉丁美洲 ； 民主化 ； 政治機構信任 ； 廣義有序勝算對數模型

並列摘要

For newly established democratic countries in Latin America after the third wave of democratization, the most vital issue is how to build up citizens’ trust of the government so that the government can achieve democratic consolidation and make the regime last for long time. In order to achieve this goal, the new government has to implement transitional justice, which is able to punish human rights abusers and compensate for victims and their families.

Although the country still need to face a dilemma between justice and peace while choosing transitional justice mechanisms, more and more countries are willing to take the mechanisms with higher accountability, such as judicial trials, after the appeal of international organizations and human rights non-governmental organizations. This situation has become a trend so called as justice cascade.

In order to understand the causal relationship between transitional justice and institutional trust, this thesis starts from reviewing the literatures related to transitional justice, institutional trust as well as the democratization in Latin America, which enable us to build a whole picture of this issue and establish two hypotheses based on these three topics. The first one is the citizens’ trust in judicial institutions will enhance after a new democratic government implementing judicial trials on human rights abusers. The second hypothesis is the citizens’ trust in political institutions will increase after the government executes multi transitional justice measures, which is also known as holistic approach, at the same time. In addition, this thesis also takes the previous regimes types as a moderator for testing the moderating effect caused by legacies of authoritarian regime.

After raising these two hypotheses, we collect the data from Latino barometer and Transitional Justice Research Collaborative during 1995 to 2010. By conducting the statistical tests with generalized ordinal logit model, we not only find that the implementation of judicial trials will enhance the citizens’ trust in judicial institutions but approve that the holistic approach won’t increase the citizens’ trust in political institutions. Besides, we also find the authoritarian legacies will affect citizens’ institutional trust. In the end, we hope this thesis can make some contributions in academic field and bring positive impact for the policies of the transitional justice made by Taiwanese government.

並列關鍵字

Transitional Justice ； Latin America ； Democratization ； Institutional Trust ； Generalized Ordinal Logit Model

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