公司治理與信用風險–以家族業為例之實證研究

本文利用統計科學方法，就資本結構負債比率大於50%與資本結構自有資金比率大於50%，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數並分析其差異，建構企業財務預警模型(Financial Early-Warning Models)(尤其是家族業)，試圖了解哪些因素能更準確預測財務危機的可能性，以收風險管理與事前預警之效。本文蒐集2000年至2012年家族企業上市櫃公司之28項財務比率變數與4項公司治理變數資料，利用Pearson檢定和逐步迴歸排除高度相關和共線性並選取顯著變數，再設立資本結構負債比率大於50%的模型一，與資本結構自有資金比率大於50%的模型二，利用Logistic迴歸估計之，嘗試篩選出可作為家族業財務預警之用的變數。實證結果建議，負債比大於50%的企業，應提高流動比率、速動比率、現金流量允當比率、每股盈餘，加強企業的獲利能力改善財務結構，同時避免董事長兼任總經理，提高公司治理能力，降低信用風險發生之機率。自有資金比大於50%的企業，應提高流動比率及營業利益率，降低利息支出率、營業費用率及借款依存度，同時避免更換會計師，盡早設置獨立董監事、避免董事長兼任總經理，加強公司治理能力，以提高公司績效。實證價值與管理涵義，家族業實施公司治理，可降低信用風險發生的可能性；進一步可降低銀行企業授信之風險性資產，提高資本適足率(BIS Ratio)。

關鍵字

公司治理；信用風險；資本結構；資本適足率

並列摘要

This study used statistical method to determine the significant variables influencing the company performance and to analyze the differences for capital structure debt ratio greater than 50% and capital structure own funds ratio greater than 50%. It constructed a Financial Early-Warning Models for enterprises (especially for family business), and determines the factors that can predict the probability of financial crises more accurately, so as to achieve the effect of risk management and early warning. A total of 28 financial ratio variables and 4 corporate governance variables of listed and over-the-counter companies of family business between 2000 and 2012 were collected. The Pearson test and stepwise regression were used to remove high correlation and colinearity and to select significant variables. The Model I of capital structure debt ratio greater than 50% and the Model II of capital structure own funds ratio greater than 50% were built and estimated by logistic regression, in order to screen out the variables for financial early warning of family business. The results suggested that the enterprises with a debt ratio greater than 50% should increase the current ratio, quick ratio, cash flow adequacy ratio and earnings per share. Moreover, the profitability of enterprises needs to be enhanced to improve the financial structure, as well as to avoid the president serving as the general manager concurrently. Hence, the corporate governance capability can be improved and the probability of credit risks can be reduced. The enterprises with own funds ratio greater than 50% should increase the current ratio and operating profit margin, reduce the interest expense ratio, operating expense ratio and dependence on borrowing. Meanwhile, they should avoid changing the accountant, and set independent directors and supervisors as early as possible. They also need to avoid the president serving as the general manager concurrently, and enhance the corporate governance capability to increase the company performance. In terms of empirical value and managerial implications, the family business can reduce the probability of credit risks by implementing corporate governance, so as to reduce the credit granted risk assets of banking enterprises and to increase the BIS Ratio.