台灣為因應歐美國家要求我國菸品市場開放,在1987年開放國內菸品市場並且結束菸酒專賣制度。雖然國內菸草種植面積開始逐年下降,消費量卻呈現增加趨勢。由於吸菸不但對人體具有很大危害,每年治療因吸菸所導致疾病之健保醫療支出,亦為全民健保的沉重負擔。因此,政府為有效降低國人吸菸率,1997年開始實施菸害防制法、2002年推行菸酒新稅制,加徵菸品健康福利捐。 本研究利用1971年至2009年之紙菸消費量及零售價格等時間序列資料,並考量台灣紙菸開放進口、菸盒警示標語、菸害防制法、吸菸健康風險訊息,以及菸品健康福利捐等因素,建構台灣紙菸需求模型,全面性的探討渠等對國人菸品需求的影響,以提供菸品管理政策後續修正之參卓。 實證結果指出,在1971年至2009年,國產紙菸及進口紙菸之價格彈性分別為-0.88及-0.47,所得彈性則分別為0.06及0.18;國產紙菸對進口紙菸之交叉彈性為0.40,進口紙菸對國產紙菸之交叉彈性為0.63。此外,吸菸健康風險訊息、菸盒警告標語,以及菸品健康福利捐、對國內紙菸需求具有負面影響,菸品開放進口對國產紙菸消費具負面影響,但對進口紙菸消費具正面影響。最後,菸害防制法對國產紙菸需求具負面影響,但對進口菸品需求的影響並不明顯。 政府以抑制吸菸率為目標之菸害防制法等措施,雖具有抑制紙菸消費的效果;然而,抑菸政策對於進口紙菸的影響效果卻不如國產紙菸顯著,推測原因可能為,進口紙菸的類型較為多樣化,且部分高價進口紙菸予人較高級的質感,故在價格彈性及替代性上,較不如國產紙菸般易受影響。此外,與先進國家相比,我國紙菸價格仍有漲價空間,基於本研究結果,以價制量為有效之政策方法,故政府應繼續提高菸品健康福利捐之稅賦,並將菸品健康福利捐,改為從價計稅,以增加對進口紙菸銷售量的影響。
In order to response the requests from western countries, Taiwan Government continually practiced import liberation of foreign cigarettes and terminated tobaccos and wines monopoly in 1987. Furthermore, smoking not only increases the risk of getting disease but also augments the cost of medical treatment of national health insurance. In order to lower the smoking rate and subsidize the National Health Insurance, Taiwan Government continually carried out the Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act in 1997,change of the Tobacco and Alcohol Tax Law in 2002, and the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax. This paper aims to analysis the comprehensive influence Tobacco Hazards Prevention and of Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax on demand for cigarette in Taiwan. Annual time series data through 1971 to 2009 from Taiwan tare used to estimate the demand for cigarettes, in consideration of the import liberation of foreign cigarettes, of anti-smoking campaigns on cigarette case, of the Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act, of smoking-related health information, and of the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax. Moreover, this paper hopes to provide government with suggestion about the amendment of cigarette management policy. The results indicate that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes are -0.88and -0.47, respectively. The income elasticities are 0.06 for domestic and 0.18 for imported cigarettes and the cross-price elasticities are 0.40 for domestic and 0.63 for imported cigarettes through 1971 to 2009. Besides, the spread of cigarette health information, anti-smoking campaigns on cigarette case, and the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax have had a significantly negative effect on domestic and imported cigarette consumption. In addition, opening the markets to imported cigarettes has had a significantly negative effect on domestic cigarette consumption, but had a significantly positive effect on imported cigarette consumption. Finally, Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act has a significantly negative effect on domestic cigarette consumption, but had an insignificantly effect on imported cigarette consumption. Although Taiwan cigarette management policies are significant, their effects on domestic cigarettes are more significant than on imported cigarettes. We presume that imported cigarettes have a variety of categories, and some of them have high qualities. Therefore, imported cigarettes’ absolute value of price elasticity and income elasticity are smaller than domestic cigarettes’. Furthermore, the prices of cigarettes in Taiwan are still too low and raising the prices is an effective method for reducing the consumption on cigarette. For these reasons, in order to increase the influence on consumption of imported cigarettes, Taiwan Government should increase the amount of the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax, and transform it from unit tax into ad valorem tax.