企業在面臨全球化的外部激烈競爭,為求提升整體競爭優勢,併購已成了企業追求外部成長的競爭策略之一。以生技產業而言,在面臨研發效率、專利到期等壓力下,加速藥物開發,爭取市場先機是製藥公司獲取競爭優勢的關鍵,在此強烈競爭環境下,藥廠投資之時機及規模便成為生技製藥公司生存發展的一大關鍵。本研究應用實質選擇權與賽局理論來評估生技製藥產業之併購投資,將併購案分為四個階段,應用實質選擇權的觀點,計算出併購方案的價值,並進行敏感度分析,找出其影響的關鍵因子,最後再結合賽局理論,進一步考慮產業環境中競爭對手回應的不確定性,彈性的評估併購專案,期能彈性與適切評價專案投資風險與價值。本研究提供一個簡單而明確的策略價值評估併購整體流程,提供公司在併購時的全盤策略思考,研究結果說明了管理彈性在投資計畫評估中的重要性與必要性,也亦證實了傳統淨現值法因忽視管理彈性,而低估了投資計畫價值。
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) is one of avenues to reach the aim of external growth when the enterprise is under the stress of external competition from globalization. Under an adverse environment, to cope with technology changes and innovation challenge, the competition relationship will become a key of biotech pharmaceutical industry. This research illustrates the use of real options valuation and game theory methodologies to analyze biotech pharmaceutical investment opportunities involving important competitive strategic decisions under uncertainty. This paper combines the theory of real option and game theory, considers the uncertainty of the rival reacts in industry's environment. These methods for planning the creation of M&A operating options designed to maximize the value of a biotech pharmaceutical industry investment allow management to take rational, value-adding actions.