縣市生育津貼政策對夫妻生育意願之影響

The Effects of County and Municipal Baby Bonus Policies on Fertility Intentions

尤智儀(Chih-Yi Yu) ； 李玉春(Yue-Chune Lee)

《人口學刊》 52期 (2016/06) Pp. 43-79

https://doi.org/10.6191/JPS.2016.52.02

摘要

近年來臺灣面臨超低生育的危機，針對少子化問題，政府推出鼓勵婦女生育之政策，如「父母未就業家庭育兒津貼」、「保母托育費用補助」或社會保險的生育給付等，各地方政府則以一次性的「生育津貼」刺激民眾生育意願，目前僅部分縣市發放生育津貼，各縣市開辦的時間與發放金額也有所差異，各縣市政府生育津貼政策是否能提升民眾生育意願為本研究欲探究之目的。本研究使用2005-2011年中央研究院「華人家庭動態資料庫」長期追蹤調查，為類實驗設計之事前事後對照組比較研究法，以家戶為分析單位，排除單身及年齡43歲以上者，介入計畫為2006-2010年間縣市生育津貼政策，使用差異中差異法，比較有無生育津貼政策的縣市居民在政策介入前後生育意願是否有異，以廣義估計方程式控制重複測量樣本之自我相關與其他干擾因子。結果顯示控制妻子年齡、家戶收入、已有子女數、丈夫年齡、丈夫教育程度、妻子教育程度、妻子勞動參與、生育壓力與都市發展程度後，生育津貼政策的介入對育齡婦女之生育意願無顯著影響。以現金補助的方式提升民眾生育意願在本研究中並無顯著效果，該政策成本耗費大，建議政府應重新檢視該項政策的規劃是否適宜。

關鍵字

生育意願 ； 生育政策 ； 生育津貼 ； 差異中差異法 ； 廣義估計方程式

並列摘要

Fertility rates have declined in most countries during these years, and Taiwan has confronted a crisis of lowest-low fertility. As a result, government authorities have proposed some policies to respond to the trend, such as maternity payment, child-care subsidy and social-insurance maternity benefit. Some counties and cities have implemented a cash payment for newborn babies (baby bonus) to encourage fertility intentions based on their financial situation and policy agenda, with implementing time and payment varying between counties. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess whether the implementation of baby bonus payments in counties and cities can effectively improve couples' fertility intentions. The study applied data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) in 2005- 2011, using a quasi-experimental, pre-post with non-randomized control design, and the household as the unit of analysis. We excluded singles and persons aged 43 or older. The intervention plan is the baby bonus policies implemented by counties and cities during 2006-2010. The difference-indifferences (DID) method was used to compare the differences in fertility intentions between counties implementing the baby bonus or not. The Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) model was used to control for autocorrelation among repeated measures as well as other covariates. The results indicated that after controlling for wife's age, household income, parity, husband's age, husband's education, wife's education, wife's employment status, fertility pressure and degree of urban development, the baby bonus policies had no statistically significant effects on fertility intentions. The cash benefits may not change the fertility intentions. Therefore, it is suggested that the local government should consider whether the policy is suitable or not due to the high costs of these policies.

並列關鍵字

fertility intentions ； pro-natalist policy ； baby bonus ； differencein- differences ； generalized estimation equation

參考文獻

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