選制認知與投票參與－2008年立法委員選舉的多層分析

2008年立法委員選舉首度採行「單一選區兩票制」，投票率卻創下1992年以來立委選舉的歷史新低，這是否與選民對新選制的認知程度有關，莫不令人感到好奇。本文旨在探討選民對新選制的認知與評價是否影響其投票參與，並以兼顧總體與個體層次的多層模型進行分析。研究結果顯示，選民對新選制的認知顯著影響投票與否，對新選制的認知程度愈高，投票參與的相對機率愈高，惟選民對新選制的評價則對投票參與無顯著影響。此外，從學理上所建構的選舉競爭度、人口遷入率、人口密度及候選人數等總體層次的選區因素，在多層模型中對選民投票與否並不具顯著的直接影響力，但選區競爭程度與選民的政黨認同則具正向的交互作用。在選舉競爭程度愈高的選區，黨性（尤其是高度黨性）對選民投票與否的解釋力愈強。

關鍵字

多層分析；投票參與；單一選區兩票制

並列摘要

The major purpose of this article is to examine whether voters' perception and evaluation of the new electoral rule, mixed-member majoritarian system (MMM), affected their voting participation in the 2008 Legislative Yuan election. Furthermore, a multilevel model is applied in this study to include both aggregate and individual level data to account for voters' participation in this election. It is found that voters' perception of the new electoral system produces significant impact on their voting participation. The more voters understand about the new electoral rule, the more likely they cast their votes. The results of the multilevel modeling indicate that although the aggregate level factors, including electoral competition, rate of population move-in, population density, and the number of candidate in each district, have no ”direct” effect on voting participation, there exists interactive effect of electoral competition at the aggregate level and partisan strength at the individual level on voters' participation. Partisan strength's effect on voting participation grows stronger if the level of competition becomes stronger in the district.