2013 年9、10 月間,中國國家主席習近平利用訪問中亞四國與印尼的機會,分別提出建設「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「21 世紀海上絲綢之路」的構想。而這樣的戰略意圖到底是如同中國外長王毅所強調的「不是地緣工具……不能用冷戰思維看待」,亦或是如解放軍少將喬良所稱「是跟美國戰略東移的一次對沖」。事實上,中國崛起在國際認知上,從來就沒有一致的認知,是否將會因經濟實力的變遷,而衝擊當前國際秩序,原本就在不同學派認知的爭議中劇烈衝撞。攤開地緣戰略地圖,如此大規模的跨區域戰略布局,不可能僅止於經濟、貿易、通商等低位階的安排,而不去調動高位階的國際政治與權力結構關係。因此,如何觀察這樣一個戰略安排的本質,如何理解其中的權力轉換,如何思考崛起中國在歐亞世界島的權力位置,而如此龐大的跨區域整合、鉅額的投資需求,複雜的權力重組,將會帶來的是無限美好的發展藍圖,亦或是新一輪冷戰的再起,基本上都是本文所關切,而亟欲思考、解決的議題。透過戰略局勢的地緣觀察,筆者認為,地緣的本質不變性與變動性,恰正可以提供超越意識形態認知的一條思維途徑。
The One Belt, One Road (OBOR) was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013. With a backdrop of China's rapid rise in recent years, the possible strategic vision and intention of this mega plan have been widely discussed. Nevertheless, from geostrategic perspective, it is hard for such a massive cross-regional policy initiative to move ahead without mobilizing the resources associated with international political and power relations. Thus, the strategic nature, the power dynamics in the region, and China's specific position of OBOR are the major concerns of this article. Will OBOR lead to a glorious future for the region's development or a resumption of new Cold War? This article suggests that the geospatial analysis of world politics that stresses both location immobility and geo-political variability could be an alternative to the ideological reading of OBOR.