- 期刊
東北亞權力結構的變動下南、北韓軍事安全對峙與外交角力（2012～2016）
Military Security Conflict and Diplomatic Rivalry between North and South Korea in the Changes of Power Structure in Northeast Asia from 2012 to 2016
摘要
本論文採用新古典現實主義概念，探討2012～2016年兩韓安全競逐與其對外交政策的影響。從新古典現實主義觀點來看，金正恩的核武戰略與朴槿惠的外交政策皆是受到東北亞國際權力體系的壓力與國內層次的因素而採取。對北韓而言，國際體系的壓力是指東北亞相對權力分布變動，北韓在兩韓安全競爭上處於劣勢狀態，加上南韓保守政府與具超強軍事實力的美國採取敵對北韓政策；國內層次的因素為金正恩採取並進路線，且將其作為國家推動經濟開發與強化防禦力的指針，藉此爭取軍隊與人民的信任與忠誠，凝聚北韓內部的團結，穩定其政權，並為了實現並進路線的目的，展開強硬外交與全方位外交政策。對南韓而言，東北亞國際權力體系的壓力是指北韓強化核武的非常規武器力量威脅南韓國家安全，國內層次的因素為保守派政府在兩韓問題上將安全作為優先考量，對北韓政策強調警惕態度，保持北韓先放棄核武再推動雙方交流的態度，為了施壓北韓，南韓外交戰略從「聯美和中」轉換為「盟美牽中」，引進「薩德」。南、北韓之間的安全對峙，不僅加劇朝鮮半島局勢的不確定性，兩韓的外交角力也受到中美角力與美日外交關係等東北亞國際體系因素的限制，無法取得外交成果。
並列摘要
This paper explores the military security rivalry between North and South Korea, and its impact on their diplomatic policies during the period of 2012 ~ 2016. From the perspective of neoclassical realism, the nuclear strategy of Kim Jong-un and the diplomatic policy of Park Geun-hye are in response to the pressure from the power shift in Northeast Asia and their respective domestic concerns. For North Korea, the pressure at the regional level refers to its inferiority in the regional power structure, especially when South Korea's conservative government takes a hostile position and enhances its political and military ties with the U.S. At the domestic level, Kim Jongun adopts the so-called parallel policy roadmap which aims at winning trust and loyalty of the army and the people. For South Korea, North Korea's nuclear strategy threatens security of South Korea, and domestically, the conservatives urge the North Korea to abandon its nuclear strategy prior to opening channels for communication. In response, South Korea has shifted its diplomatic strategy from uniting with the U.S. and China to aligning with the U.S. against China, even by equipping THAAD. In addition, the diplomatic rivalry between China and the U.S. and the complexity of power relations in Northeast Asia have exacerbated the security uncertainty in the Korean Peninsula.