選舉制度及時程對政黨體系與政府型態的影響：總統制與半總統制國家的跨國分析

The Effect of Electoral System and Election Timing on Party System and Type of Government: A Preliminary Study of Presidential and Semi-Presidential Democracies around the World

蘇子喬(Tzu-chiao Su)

《政治學報》 65期 (2018/06) Pp. 37-80

https://doi.org/10.6229/CPSR.201806_65.0002

摘要

本文試圖檢視在全世界具有總統直選與國會選舉的民主國家（即總統制與半總統制國家）中，國會選制、總統選制與選舉時程對於國會政黨體系與政府型態造成的綜合影響。一般認為，不同的國會選制會形塑不同的國會政黨體系，而不同的國會政黨體系與憲政體制相互組合則會形成不同的政府型態。不過，上述的傳統看法稍嫌簡略，因為在總統制與半總統制民主國家中，影響國會政黨體系的制度因素不僅是國會選制，總統選制與選舉時程也分別對國會政黨體系造成影響。而且，選舉時程不僅會影響國會政黨體系，也會直接影響政府型態。因此，本文認為在總統制與半總統制下，「國會選制」、「總統選制」、「選舉時程」、「國會政黨體系」、「政府型態」等變項的關係是：「國會選制」、「總統選制」、「選舉時程」等三個變項（自變項）共同塑造「國會政黨體系」（中介變項），而「國會政黨體系」與總統制與半總統制相互組合則形成不同的「政府型態」（依變項）。此外，「選舉時程」（自變項）也會直接影響「政府型態」（依變項）。總之，本文將以上述各變項構成的分析架構為基礎，探討選舉制度與選舉時程如何影響全世界總統制與半總統制民主國家的國會政黨體系與政府型態。希望透過本文的初探性研究，能夠對當代民主國家選舉制度與憲政體制的配套問題有更深入的理解。

關鍵字

選舉制度 ； 選舉時程 ； 政黨體系 ； 總統制 ； 半總統制 ； 政府型態

並列摘要

This paper tries to investigate the comprehensive impacts of parliamentary electoral systems, presidential electoral systems and election timings on the party systems and the types of government among the presidential and semi-presidential democracies all over the world. Generally speaking, different parliamentary electoral systems will shape different party systems in the parliament, and different combinations of the party system and constitutional system will form different types of government. However, the above traditional patterns are too simple. In the presidential and semi-presidential democracies, the factor that may affect the party system in the parliament is not merely the parliamentary electoral system, so may the presidential electoral system and election timing. Furthermore, the election timing will not only affect the party system in the parliament, but also directly influence the type of government. Therefore, this paper argues that, under presidential and semi-presidential systems, the relations among the variables, which are parliamentary electoral system, presidential electoral system, election timing, party system in the parliament and the type of government, are as follows. Parliamentary electoral system, presidential electoral system and election timing (independent variables) will jointly shape the party system in the parliament (intervening variable), while different types of government (dependent variable) will be formed when the party system in the parliament is collocated with presidential or semi-presidential systems. In addition, the election timing (independent variable) will also directly affect the types of government (dependent variable). In summary, based on the analytical framework composed of the above variables, this paper explores how the institutional factors shape the party systems and the types of government in the presidential and semi-presidential democracies around the world.

並列關鍵字

Electoral System ； Election Timing ； Party System ； Presidentialism ； Semi-Presidentialism ； Type of Government

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