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美國各州政經與社會需求因素對社會福利支出之影響研究
A Study of the Influential Relationship between Political-Economic, Social Need Factors and Social Welfare Expenditure in the United States
摘要
本文旨在檢視美國各州社會需求、經濟財政狀況、議會席次與TANF支出規模的決策行為的關連性。利用1996到2013年美國各州的相關資料進行分析，本研究發現：1）除社會需求，財政及經濟因素外，選舉及府會結構因素顯著影響各州TANF的支出規模；2）一致性政府下的府會雖然同步，但未必會增加TANF的支出規模，卻反有削減TANF支出之虞，而支出削減幅度須視政黨席次居簡單多數或絕對多數而定；3）民主黨居絕對多數的一致性政府，未必會增加TANF支出，而共和黨剛好過半的一致性政府也不會削減TANF支出，但共和黨絕對多數的一致性政府，則會顯著削減TANF支出規模。
並列摘要
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the state's social needs, economic and financial conditions, the decision-making behavior of parliamentarians and TANF expenditure levels in the United States. Using the official aggregate data across all American states from 1996 to 2013, this study finds that: 1) in addition to social needs, financial and economic factors, the election and gubernatorial-legislative structure factors significantly affect the TANF spending level in each state; 2) united government, in which the state governor’s office is of the same party as the legislature, does not necessarily result in an increase in the TANF spending level - it may, rather, lead to a decrease in TANF expenditures. The amount of the decrease in TANF expenditure depends on whether the political party in power in the state legislature holds a simple majority or an absolute majority; 3) an absolute majority, united, state government under the Democratic Party will not necessarily lead to an increase in TANF spending level; a united state government featuring a Republican governor with a slim 50-51% Republican majority in the state legislature will not reduce TANF expenditures, while a Republican absolute majority, united, state government will decrease TANF spending.