並列摘要
Energy has played an extremely important role in the rapid economic development of Vietnam since the beginning of market-oriented economy reforms in 1986. Energy sectors not only generate revenue with export products, but also directly support the growth of other industrial sectors. However, is the continued growth of energy sectors and their vital role in supporting economic growth sustainable? What would happen if there were unexpected exogenous shocks to the energy sectors so vital to the Vietnamese emergent economy? These are critical questions whenever designing suitable energy and economic development policy and strategic planning. This study provides partial answers to the above-mentioned questions by (1) examining the historical patterns and sources of energy growth of the Vietnamese economy, and (2) exploring how the economy would be affected if impacted by exogenous energy shocks. In this study, we first apply the deviation from proportional growth (DPG) method together with some typical input-output analysis measures, such as backward and forward linkages, to examine how energy sectors grow and the role energy sectors played during the economic growth between 1996 and 2007. Secondly, we perform a SAM (social accounting matrix) structural path analysis to examine the transmission paths of exogenous energy shocks to the Vietnamese economy over the period 2007 - 2011, and compare these results with the conventional SAM multipliers. We will also utilize the SAM price model to examine the effects of an increase in energy prices on the Vietnamese economy. Finally, we construct a SAM constrained fixed-price model to explore the effects of restricted energy supply on the Vietnamese economy. The results of the analysis will provide useful information to the Vietnamese government decision makers regarding the future paths and development of the energy sectors as well as the overall economic development.