設計並建立以本體論為基礎之風險辨識資訊系統

The Design and Development of Ontology-Based Risk Identification Information System

胡小亮(Hsiao-liang Hu)

指導教授 ： 陳仲儼

國立中央大學/管理學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

專案在進行的過程中會面臨許多不確定性的問題，如果能夠事先知道有哪些風險並設法降低或消除它所帶來的影響，將有利專案之順利進行。由於辨認風險是一個知識密集的活動，其必須仰賴專案人員的經驗，因此專案人員的風險知識與經驗多寡將會影響辨識的正確性。另外，由於風險之間可能會有交互影響關係，故風險辨識亦應包含辨識風險之間的關聯。有鑑於本體論常被應用於知識管理，其適合處理並整合專家的知識，耑此，本研究嘗試建立一個以本體論為基礎的專家系統，來塑模組織經驗及知識以協助專案團隊辨識風險項目，並進一步推論風險間的交互影響關係，以能正確掌握專案風險脈絡。本研究之系統是以網頁的方式呈現，並實際以個案公司提供的案例來說明和展示系統的操作。

關鍵字

軟體專案風險管理 ； 風險辨識 ； 本體論 ； 知識密集 ； 專家系統

並列摘要

Software development is dynamic and risky in nature. The development of a software project would be conducted successfully if risky can be identified and controlled properly. Because risk identification is a knowledge-intensive process, it depends on the experience of project members, which would affect the effectiveness of risk identification and control. Besides, risks may have interrelations so that the identification should also consider the interrelation of risks. Owing to the wide usage of ontology in knowledge management, this research attempt to establish an expert system based on ontology, which models the experience and knowledge of organization, to support project members to identify risks. The proposed system can further identify potential and their risks interrelationship. This study will be implemented into a web-based system, and use a case to demonstrate and verify the usage of the system.

並列關鍵字

Software project risk management ； Risk identification ； Ontology ； Knowledge-intensive ； Expert system

參考文獻

[2] 陳仲儼 & 黃永福. (2009). 運用模糊專家系統來協助軟體專案進行流程調適. 電子商務學報, 11(1), 235-258.

[3] Abidi, S. S. R., & Manickam, S. (2002). Leveraging XML-based electronic medical records to extract experiential clinical knowledge. International Journal of Medical Informatics, 68, 187–203.

[4] Addison, T. (2003). E-commerce project development risks: evidence from a Delphi survey. International Journal of Information Management, 23(1), 25-40.

[6] Alonso F., Martinez L., Perez A. & Valente J.P. (2012). Cooperation between expert knowledge and data mining discovered knowledge: Lesson learned. Expert Systems with Applications, 39, 7524‐7535.

[7] Bakker, K., Boonstra, A. and & Wortmann, H. (2010). Does Risk Management Contribute to IT Project Success? A Meta-Analysis of Empirical Evidence. International Journal of Project Management, 28(5), 493–503.