透過您的圖書館登入
IP:18.218.172.249
  • 期刊

The Weak Preempting the Strong: The Case of the Taiwan Strait

並列摘要


The purpose of this article is to decide whether a preemptive strike is a better option for a weaker power at the beginning of an asymmetric military conflict. The author examines five possible situations in the Taiwan Strait crisis via normal form game, extensive form game, and mixed strategy in order to discover why a weaker power might choose to launch a preemptive strike under certain circumstances. The findings show that no matter whether two or three countries are involved in armed conflict in the Strait or whether such an asymmetric conflict is initiated by Taiwan or China, it would always be in Thiwan's interest to assert preemption, assuming conflict has become inevitable. Given situations of incomplete information, the results still hold. This presents strong evidence that a weaker power facing unavoidable armed conflict should strike first. This study also proves that the threat need not be ”imminent”: it need only be ”inevitable.”

參考文獻


Ahle, Dirk R.(1990).Preemptive Military Strikes: A Viable Option against International Terrorism?.CSC Report.(CSC Report).,未出版.
Arreguin-Toft, Ivan(2001).How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflicts.International Security.26(1),93-128.
Betts, Richard K.(2003).Striking First: A History of Thankfully Lost Opportunities.Ethics and International Affairs.17(1),17-24.
Bush, Richard C. 2010. "Taiwan Faces Growing Threat: Communist China Undermines Rapprochement." Washington Times, September 8. https://www. washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/8/taiwan-faces-growing-threat/ (accessed September 15, 2010).
Byers, Michael(2003).Preemptive Self-Defense: Hegemony, Equality and Strategies of Legal Change.Journal of Political Philosophy.11(2),171-190.

延伸閱讀