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  • 學位論文

都市地區街廓層級建物火災風險區劃方法研究

A Delineation of Fire Risk Zones by Urban Blocks

指導教授 : 林峰田

摘要


近年來台灣地區災禍連連,其中火災又屬都市地區中最為頻繁的人為災害之一,造成的損失亦相當可觀,對整個社會的成本投入、衝擊與後續影響更是驚人。然而,目前一般消防單位對於消防安全之檢視大多僅著眼於建築物內部的消防設備或是建物內部防火設計是否妥當等硬體面,但從都市整體角度,即周邊環境、空間結構以及建物、土地使用等因素對於火災之影響則甚少探討之,再加上都市防災計畫與檢討中亦須風險的資訊,因此本研究擬就都市街廓尺度,評估其火災風險度,以作為都市地區消防規劃、通盤檢討以及都市更新等政策決定之參考依據。 本研究假設全市消防設備(消防栓與水源等)平均分布,且建物內部消防設備會隨建物屋齡老化,將風險分成機率與損失兩部分進行評估:在火災發生機率部分,係利用全市各種建物類型之歷史火災發生次數與其總戶數相除所得之商數作為全市各種建物類型之火災發生機率,以此推估未來同種類型建物之火災發生機率;在火災損失推估方面,則是以歷史火災案件之房屋現值與財物損失之中位數關係,建立中位數火災損失函數,透過房屋現值,以估計火災的可能損失。最後,再利用地理資訊系統將二者推估結果進行分析與交互運算後,將風險等級區分成高中低三級,並繪製成火災風險分區圖。經研究地區檢證後發現,火災發生機率之推估結果與專業消防人員評定之結果吻合率達83.3%,而火災損失之估計結果亦有75%的相符率,遂將此二結果依本研究所建立之火災風險評估模式,計算獲得風險值,並依其高低程度繪製成火災風險分區圖。研究成果可作為未來相關單位進行地區防災計畫、都市更新、防災社區總體營造與消防演習等相關規劃與政策行動的參考依據。

並列摘要


Frequent man-made hazards, especially in the cases of urban fires, have caused serious loss and strong impact on the society. Most studies on fire prevention focus on buildings themselves, such as fire protection facilities, the usage of uninflammable materials, the design of partitions for preventing from fire hazard, etc. However, few researches discuss how to manage fire hazard in community scale concerning surrounding environments, space structure, land use, etc. Recently, urban plans are requested to take hazard mitigation into account. It demands more studies on the urban scale. Hence, this research proposes an evaluation method to assess fire risk degree in terms of urban blocks. This research constructs a framework of fire risk evaluation. It assumes that urban fire facilities, such as fire hydrants and water supply, are distributed equally and properly. It also considers that fire protection facilities within buildings can be aging. Risk is defined as the multiplication of probability and loss. The probability of fire associated with building types is estimated according to the frequency of fire in past years divided by the total number of that building type. The loss of fire disaster is estimated by their median loss against property value. Finally, we analyze fire risks using GIS and divide the results into three equal ranks, namely high, medium and low risks, and get a fire risk zone map. The research finds that the estimation of fire probability in study area is 83.3% similar and fire median loss in study area is 75% similar to the evaluation results by firemen based on their daily experiences. The result of this research can be applied to local hazard mitigation planning, urban renewal projects, hazard preparedness and response for daily practice of fire protection.

並列關鍵字

Risk Zone GIS Median Loss Fire Risk Assessment

參考文獻


陳坤宏(1991)《空間結構—理論與方法》。台北市:明文出版社。
趙志銘(2002)《以二元資料迴歸方法建構建物震害危險度最適預測模式─以中興新村都市計畫區為例》。國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。
R. W. Bukowski, S.W. Stiefel, J. R. Haller, Jr. and F. B. Clarke (1990). Fire Risk Assessment Method: Description of Methdology, National Institute of Standards and Technology, NISTIR 90-4242.
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被引用紀錄


蔡博烝(2013)。都市老舊社區防火安全之探討–以台南市大仁里為例〔碩士論文,長榮大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6833%2fCJCU.2013.00213
李宇松(2009)。基於PPGIS之社區災害管理研究--以汐止市長青里為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2009.00148
朱慶大(2007)。土地混合使用後火災風險改變分析方法之研究—系統動力學觀點〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2007.02700
葉東翰(2009)。都市老舊地區防火安全規劃之研究-以台南市天后里為例〔碩士論文,長榮大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0015-2807200910582300

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