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台灣立委選制改革對現任者競選優勢之影響

How Does the Change in the System of Legislative Elections Affect Incumbency Advantage in Taiwan?

Abstracts


現任者優勢指的是現任議員在選舉中,因現任者的身份,而享有的競選優勢。我國自2008年起,立委選舉發生兩大變革,一是選制由過去的單記不可讓渡投票制改為小選區相對多數制,二是人數減半。因此變革,之後的現任者將能嚇阻高素質挑戰者的投入,及擁有更多資源從事選區服務,從而使其具備強大的競選優勢。本研究使用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」的面訪資料,以多層次巢狀勝算對數模型分析後發現,在2012年的立委選戰中,現任立委享有相當顯著地競選優勢,但此現象在2004年的選戰中卻不明顯。由於此現象對我國民主發展有不利影響,吾人宜及早因應。

Parallel abstracts


Incumbency advantage is the benefit of being an incumbent in an election. In 2008, the legislative electoral system in Taiwan was switched from single non-transferable voting to first-past-the-post voting. The number of seats was also halved from 225 to 113. After this change, incumbents were able to deter quality challengers from running, and they could also deploy more resources in constituency services than their predecessors. Therefore, incumbents in the 2012 legislative election should have more advantage than those in the 2004 election. The author used a survey data set from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study. The empirical results indicated that being an incumbent could offer statistically significantly advantage in the 2012 election, but incumbency advantage was not statistically significant in the 2004 election. In light of the damage of incumbency advantage in the U.S. democracy, we should seriously consider measures to mitigate the damage.

References


盛治仁(2006)。單一選區兩票制對未來台灣政黨政治發展之可能影響探討。台灣民主季刊。3,63-85。
吳宜侃(2005)。SNTV 選制下「立法委員連任勝選幅度模型」建立之嘗試:以第四屆區域立委為例。台灣民主季刊。2,71-99。
王鼎銘、范恩邦(2010)。立委參選人競選支出的選舉效果:Jacobson 支出理論在台灣新選制下的再驗。台灣政治學刊。14,3-35。
劉正山(2009)。2008年總統大選競選期間政黨支持者選擇性接觸媒體傾向的分析。選舉研究。16,51-70。
黃德福、黃靖麟(2008)。回溯投票或議題投票:2005年台北縣與高雄縣縣長選舉之比較分析。選舉研究。15,19-49。

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