台灣立委選制改革對現任者競選優勢之影響

How Does the Change in the System of Legislative Elections Affect Incumbency Advantage in Taiwan?

佘健源(Chien-Yuan Sher)

《經濟論文叢刊》 45卷3期 (2017/09) Pp. 453-494

https://doi.org/10.6277/TER.2017.453.3

摘要

現任者優勢指的是現任議員在選舉中，因現任者的身份，而享有的競選優勢。我國自2008年起，立委選舉發生兩大變革，一是選制由過去的單記不可讓渡投票制改為小選區相對多數制，二是人數減半。因此變革，之後的現任者將能嚇阻高素質挑戰者的投入，及擁有更多資源從事選區服務，從而使其具備強大的競選優勢。本研究使用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」的面訪資料，以多層次巢狀勝算對數模型分析後發現，在2012年的立委選戰中，現任立委享有相當顯著地競選優勢，但此現象在2004年的選戰中卻不明顯。由於此現象對我國民主發展有不利影響，吾人宜及早因應。

關鍵字

現任者優勢 ； 單一選區相對多數決制 ； 單記不可讓渡投票制 ； 巢狀勝算對數模型

並列摘要

Incumbency advantage is the benefit of being an incumbent in an election. In 2008, the legislative electoral system in Taiwan was switched from single non-transferable voting to first-past-the-post voting. The number of seats was also halved from 225 to 113. After this change, incumbents were able to deter quality challengers from running, and they could also deploy more resources in constituency services than their predecessors. Therefore, incumbents in the 2012 legislative election should have more advantage than those in the 2004 election. The author used a survey data set from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study. The empirical results indicated that being an incumbent could offer statistically significantly advantage in the 2012 election, but incumbency advantage was not statistically significant in the 2004 election. In light of the damage of incumbency advantage in the U.S. democracy, we should seriously consider measures to mitigate the damage.

並列關鍵字

incumbency advantage ； first-past-the-post voting ； single non-transferable voting ； nested logit model

參考文獻

中央通訊社(2014), “高雄市長之爭,陳菊楊秋興再戰,” 《中央通訊社》, 2014年1月12日, URL: http : / /www. cna . com. tw/ topic /Popular / 4259 -2/201401120031-1.aspx。(Central News Agency (2014), “Chu Chen and Chiu-Hsing Yang Compete Again for Mayor of Kaohsiung City,”Central News Agency, January 12, 2014, URL: http://www.cna.com.tw/topic/Popular/4259-2/201401120031-1.aspx.)

王柏燿(2002)。臺灣選民經濟投票之研究：1996-2001年。國立政治大學政治學研究所=Graduate Institute of Politics, National Chengchi University。

王鼎銘、范恩邦(2010)。立委參選人競選支出的選舉效果：Jacobson 支出理論在台灣新選制下的再驗。台灣政治學刊。14，3-35。

自由時報(2011), “62人搶33選區綠委初選參選爆炸,” 《自由時報》, 2011年3月13日, A04版。(Liberty Times (2011), “The Democratic Progressive Party Primary is Crowded: 62 Candidates Compete for 33 Seats,”Liberty Times, March 13, 2011, A04.)

吳宜侃(2005)。SNTV 選制下「立法委員連任勝選幅度模型」建立之嘗試：以第四屆區域立委為例。台灣民主季刊。2，71-99。