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第二次安倍政權對獨立選民選舉對策之研究

The Study on Election Strategy for the Independent Voters During the Second Abe Regime

Abstracts


安倍晉三重返執政後,在國政選舉連戰皆捷,創下日本憲政史上最長的執政,第二次安倍政權也成為日本政治的研究焦點。以往對國政選舉的研究,大多將焦點置於自民黨透過國政選舉的勝利如何建立起「自民黨一強」的政黨政治,以及將自民黨的勝選歸因於自公兩黨的選舉合作,以及在野黨的整合不力,而獨立選民較少被討論。日本的獨立選民從1960年代開始成長,在第二次安倍政權期間維持著50%以上的水準,獨立選民的投票行為成為選舉成敗的關鍵。獨立選民的投票行為為何,安倍首相對獨立選民的選舉策略又為何,是解釋第二次安倍政權成為長期政權的重要環節。本文研究發現,安倍首相為了防止獨立選民選票的流失,採取推出經濟政策迎合民意、迴避政策辯論減緩獨立選民對政權的不滿,以及利用新媒體爭取年輕族群支持等選舉策略。從獨立選民與年輕族群的支持情形來看,安倍首相的策略是成功的。

Parallel abstracts


After Shinzo Abe returned to power, he won consecutive battles in the national elections, having the longest reign in the history of constitutional government in Japan. The second Abe regime has also become the focus of research in Japanese politics. Most of the previous research on national elections focused on how the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) established one-party dominance through the victory of the national elections, and attributed the LDP's victory to the election cooperation between the LDP and the Komeito, as well as the failed integration of the opposition parties, while the independent voters were rarely discussed. Japan's independent voters have undergone remarkable growth since the 1960s and amounted to half the electorate during the second Abe regime. The voting behavior of the independent voters becomes the key to the success or failure of the election. What the voting behavior of independent voters is and what the electoral strategy for independent voters Prime Minister Abe adopts are two crucial factors in explaining why the second Abe regime becomes a long-term regime. This paper finds that for fear of losing support among independent voters, Prime Minister Abe adopted economic policies to cater to public opinion, avoided policy debates to reduce the dissatisfaction from independent voters, and took advantage of new media to win the support among young people in elections. Judged from the support of independent voters and young people, Prime Minister Abe's strategy is successful.

References


吳明上,2018,〈2014年日本安倍首相解散眾議院之分析〉,《問題與研究》,第57卷第2期,頁39-58。doi:10.30390/ISC.201806_57(2).0002
吳重禮、許文賓,2003,〈誰是政黨認同者與獨立選民?—以二○○一年臺灣地區選民政黨認同的決定因素為例〉,《政治科學論叢》,第18期,頁101-140。doi:10.6166/TJPS.18(101-140)
小枝義人,2018,〈安倍長期政権の研究―内政を中心に〉,《問題と研究》,第47卷第2號,頁31-58。doi:10.30391/ISJ.201806_47(2).0002
鄭子真,2018,〈日本「そのつど支持」と政党政治の変容〉,《問題と研究》,第47卷第4號,頁73-108。doi:10.30391/ISJ.201812_47(4).0003
王中天,2008,〈獨立選民的類型及其投票行為:臺灣2008年總統選舉的觀察〉,《選舉研究》,第17卷第2期,頁35-69。doi:10.6612/tjes.2010.17.02.35-69

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