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解析台灣民眾統獨偏好:一個兩難又不確定的選擇

Analyzing Taiwanese Public Opinion toward Future Cross-Strait Relations: Choice under Ambiguity and Uncertainty

Abstracts


過去諸多與台灣民眾統獨偏好相關的研究發現,「價值衝突」及「不確定性」可謂為民眾統獨偏好的兩大主要特質。本研究的目的即在探討該兩項機制如何影響台灣民眾的統獨偏好。以兩岸整合的各項層面為例(包括兩岸經濟、生活、思想、或政治條件相同),本研究利用條件式問卷題組及,分析在務實面考量下,各條件的變化如何影響民眾統獨偏好的測量值的點估計及其離散程度。具體的發現包括以下兩點:首先,就偏好測量值的點估計而言,情感或理念的因素,譬如台灣人或中國人認同等,對於民眾的統獨偏好仍具有決定性的影響;而務實面的考量中,譬如對大陸日後政治或經濟發展走向的評估等,亦對民眾的統獨立場有所影響。換言之,感性與理性層面的考量皆可能左右民眾的統獨偏好。其次,就測量值的變異程度而言,本研究發現,受訪者針對各種條件問句所作的回答其變異數並非均一。透過變異數不等選項模型的分析,我們發現影響變異數不等的主要原因反映了上述兩項統獨偏好的特質:第一,由於民眾統獨立場背後的價值衝突程度不一,造成價值衝突程度高的人對統獨議題表態時陷入立場矛盾的兩難困境(變異數大)。第二,民眾對於兩岸議題的資訊充足程度亦可能影響統獨態度的變異數,即愈有能力理解兩岸議題或愈具備相關資訊的受訪者,其表態時的不確定感自然降低,則其統獨態度的變異程度自然較小。不過,最後這項論點並沒有獲得全面的驗證。

Parallel abstracts


This article analyzes the extent to which ambiguity and uncertainty affect Taiwanese public opinion toward future cross-Strait relations. With respect to different conditions for future integration across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we adopt a set of survey questionnaires to explore Taiwanese unification-independence preferences. Then, by assuming that the latent sampling distributions of such preferences may comprise different means and unequal variances, we form a set of heterogeneous choice models to investigate the factors that may contribute to explaining the differences among means (i.e., differences among locations of responses) and the factors that may result in variations in the variances (i.e., differences among distributions of responses). Our findings are mainly three-fold: first, a respondent's Taiwanese identity and assessment of mainland China's economic prospects as well as political development have significant impacts in terms of determining his/her unificationindependence preference. Second, a respondent could form ambivalent attitudes toward future cross-Strait relations due to his/her conflicting (or competing) values regarding cross-Strait relations. Finally, the more knowledge (or information) about cross-Strait issues a respondent possesses, the less uncertain he/she may become when expressing his/her unification-independence preference. However, this uncertainty argument is not fully supported by our empirical data.

References


吳乃德(2002)。認同衝突與政治信任:現階段台灣族群政治的核心難題。台灣社會學。4,75-118。
Lin, Tse-min(2011).Information and Ieological Structure in Spatial Voting.Taiwan Jouranl of Democracy.7(1),1-24.
Lin, Tse-min,Chu, Yun-han(2008).The Structure of Taiwan's Political Cleavages toward the 2004 Presidential Election: A Spatial Analysis.Taiwan Journal of Democracy.4(2),133-54.
王甫昌(2008)。族群政治議題在台灣民主轉型中的角色。台灣民主季刊。5(2),89-140。
蕭怡靖、游清鑫(2012)。檢測台灣民眾六分類統獨立場:一個測量改進的提出。台灣政治學刊。16(2),65-116。

Cited by


李明凱(2015)。胡錦濤時期中共對台的文化戰略〔碩士論文,淡江大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00807
劉康平(2021)。「天然獨」現象的內涵與成因〔碩士論文,國立暨南國際大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6837/ncnu202100103
沈暐婕(2017)。臺灣天然獨世代的民族認同與國家認同〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201701912

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