- 期刊
（去）政黨標籤化及其影響：以村里長選舉為例
How Party Labels Impact Elections: Evidence from Village Chiefs in Taiwan
摘要
政黨標籤對選舉的重要性無須多言，然而晚近個人化政治（personalized politics）影響甚鉅，就連最為基層的村里長選戰也出現去政黨標籤化現象，這對選舉結果造成何種影響？本文從反政黨情緒與負面黨性等文獻出發，結合公民－政治家連結（citizen-politician linkages）理論視角，針對政黨標籤的負面效果及政黨間的異質性提出假設。就實證策略言，本研究透過2010∼2022年間全國共四次村里長選舉之資料，分析（去）標籤化的逐年情形，並發現「去標籤化」候選人當中有較多非現任者，其所在村里之人口密度、教育程度與所得也較低。為評估（去）標籤化對選舉結果之因果效應，研究設計採取傾向分數配對（propensity score matching）加上二維固定效果模型（two-way fixed effects model）；本文發現「民進黨標籤化」減少得票率且「去民進黨標籤化」增加得票率，至於（去）國民黨標籤化不影響選舉結果。總結來說，只有民進黨標籤對候選人得票率有所影響，這可能反映了國民黨的侍從性（clientelism）連結與民進黨承載的綱領性（programmatic）連結有所不同。
並列摘要
Party labels have traditionally been significantly important in elections. However, the recent influence of personalized politics has resulted in the de-labeling of candidates, even in grassroots-level village chief elections. This study explores the impact of (de) labeling on election outcomes, drawing from research on anti-party sentiment, negative partisanship, and the Citizen-Politician linkages theory. By analyzing data from four village chief elections held in Taiwan between 2010 and 2022. Our results reveal that "de-labeled" candidates tend to be non-incumbents in villages with lower population density, education levels, and income. In addition by utilizing Propensity Score Matching and the Two-way Fixed Effects model, our research shows that the de-labeling of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates generally increases their vote share, while labeling has the opposite effect. Most notably, the (de) labeling of Kuomintang (KMT) candidates does not significantly influence election outcomes, whereas that of DPP candidates does have an impact. This finding may highlight the distinct nature of clientelism linkages prevalent within the KMT, in contrast to the programmatic linkages within the DPP.