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天然災害緊急應變演練腳本產生器

Generator of Drill Script for Compound Natural Disasters

Abstracts


防災演練腳本的目的是用於指導防災人員如何在模擬的天災環境中做出正確的判斷。在現行防災實務上,防災演練腳本主要是由專家或經驗豐富的防災專員編寫,他們需花費大量的人時才能將實務經驗轉譯和編寫成腳本。然而,面對於複合性和大規模的天然災害,這些花費大量人力和時間所產生的腳本,並不能自動的產生新的模擬事件。故本研究主要目的在開發一天然災害緊急應變演練腳本產生器。此腳本產生器可根據歷史事件資料,自動生成不同類型之模擬情境,提供專家進行腳本的挑選及使用。腳本自動產生方法有三個步驟:(1)根據歷史資料或電腦模擬結果,產生天然災害範圍。(2)定義災害事件(危險狀況),災害事件描述真實情境包含傷亡人員、危險建物等災害事件相關細節。本研究亦開發了參數供使用者定義事件樣貌。(3)開發腳本產生器,將災害範圍及災害事件組合,發展可能的災害事件之類型。本研究開發之腳本產生器,可供防災專業人員於產生之災害類型中,挑選合適的腳本進行模擬訓練,自動化地生成不同的模擬腳本,亦可減少防災演練腳本人工編寫之成本,並提升編寫發展腳本的擴充能力,讓防災人員可藉由過去的經驗,延伸及產生更符合複合性及大規模災害的情境腳本,以提供模擬訓練使用。

Parallel abstracts


Drill script is to guide the behavior of a group of people under an imaginary disaster scenario. In current state of practice, the drill scripts are most developed by the experts or experienced staffs. They must spend tremendous man-hours and completely transfer the experiences into the script. However, when facing the compound natural disasters or large-scaled disasters, the manual method may not sufficient to handle the development of drill script. This research aims at developing an automatic method to intelligently generate the drill scripts. The generated scripts should have considered the nature of the disaster and the possible influence to the society. The developed automatic method can be divided into three steps: The first step is to retrieve scope of the disasters from the past experiences. This can either be collected from the disaster history or generated by the simulators. The second step is to define the possible events and the relation to the possible disaster, i.e. hazard situations. These events include realistic scenarios such as suffering people, damage structures, etc. We also develop parameters to describe the profile of the events. The third step is to develop a script generator by scrambling the disasters and possible events. A user interface was also developed to allow experts to pick the scripts suitable for the drills. The automatic method can not only reduce the efforts on developing the drill scripts but also expand the capacity of the drill developers to handle the large compound disasters exceed past experiences.

References


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