天然災害損失之經濟評估

Economic assessment of the loss from natural disasters

張簡仕傑(Wan-Yu Liu) ； 林士彥(Shih-Yen Lin) ； 郭幸福(Hsing-Fu Kuo) ； 鄭心瑩(Hsin-Ying Cheng) ； 柳婉郁(Shin-Jay Chang Jian)

《林業研究季刊》 40卷3期 (2018/09) Pp. 161-177

摘要

本研究先分析全台灣之天然災害損失趨勢，再針對南投縣地區之天然災害進行分析，天然災害損失中，農業損失確實有逐漸下降的趨勢，而南投縣之農業損失被害面積與農業損失的數量，2005年高峰是海棠颱風雨期後帶來的水災造成，其整體損失的趨勢是逐年下降的。推論南投縣地區農民在應付天然災害時的農產物減收已有一定經驗，能將損失控制在一定程度。其次，本研究進一步利用投入產出法分析2009年莫拉克颱風造成損失之經濟評估，包括造成的產值損失、所得損失與就業損失，並政府復建工程投入所造成的產值、所得與就業之增加數。本研究根據短期的投入產出模型分析，結果顯示總產出效果為政府實際支出總額的1.31倍；政府補助莫拉克災後重建金額為1,385億4,600萬元，為我國創造約1,811億7,975萬元產值、創造807億3,259萬元的所得效益、增加218,029個工作機會。其次，本研究估天然災害造成之災害損失影響，總農業損失約為108億9,679萬元，對南投造成農業損失3億2,104萬元，這樣的直接損失金額，造成全台減少142億4,997萬元產值，降低63億4,970萬元所得，也減少17148個工作機會。南投地區減少4億1,983萬元產出效益，及1億2,8707萬元的所得效益，以及減少505個工作機會。

關鍵字

天然災害 ； 投入產出法 ； 經濟評估

並列摘要

This study accessed the trend of the loss caused by the natural disasters in Taiwan with an emphysis on the natural disasters in Nantou county. For the loss caused by the natural disasters, agricultural loss has a gradually decreased trend. The damaged area and the amount of agricultural loss of Nantou reached the peak in 2005 due to the flood by Typhoon Haitang. The trend of the overall loss decreased annually in the years followed. We inferred that the farmers in Nantou county are experienced in protecting their crops from the natural disasters and therefore the agricultural loss can be well controlled. An input-output analysis method was adopted to evaluate the economic impacts caused by the most severe Typhoon Morakot. The economic impacts include loss of output value, income and employment, as well as increase in works, income, and employment attributed from the reconstruction. The results of the short-term input-output analysis showed that the output effects are 1.31 times of the expenses spend by the government. Overall, the 138.5 billion NTD reconstruction expense provided by the goverment created 181.1 billion NTD of output value, 80.7 billion NTD of income effect, and 218k employment opportunities. In addition, this study accessed the loss caused by the natural disasters. The agricultural loss caused by Typhoon Morako in 2009 is nearly 10.8 billion NTD. The loss directly resulted in 14.2 billion NTD decrease in output value, 6.3 billion NTD income decrease, and reduced 17.1k employment opportunities.

並列關鍵字

natural disaster ； input-output method ； economic assessment