天然災害直接與間接損失之評估方法

A Review on Evaluating the Direct and Indirect Loss of Natural Disasters

柳婉郁(Wan Yu Liu) ； 張簡仕傑(Shih Jay Jhang Jian)

《農林學報》 65卷4期 (2017/12) Pp. 237-254

https://doi.org/10.30089/JAF.201712_65(4).0003

摘要

臺灣地處高災害潛勢地區，因此颱風、地震、淹水、土石崩塌等天然災害經常發生。發生天災時總會造成許多人命、建構物、財產以及公共建設等直接性的損失。本研究將天然災害與其損失評估進行文獻回顧整理定義與方法，提供未來建立評估模型之參考。本研究主要分析天然災害定義、分類、評估方法之文獻回顧，並對於估算災害損失的方法進行分類，包括調查法、計量經濟法、時間序列分析、投入產出模型、可計算一般均衡模型、經濟會計成長模型等。本研究結果指出，學術層面上，從災害的成因至災害的結果至中間的發生過程均需仔細評估，而評估方式則需針對評估對象的特性進行調整。評估過程須先觀察災害損失現況，搭配過去的資料庫為基礎進行分析，災害損失種類，以直接災害損失較容易估算，國內外學者因測量方法及損失物價值的估算不同而有所分歧，尤其在災害風險或災害損失的研究上，以國家層級為主的研究較多，地方層級區域的研究則較少。臺灣目前的災害損失估計，乃是針對災害類別而使用不同的方法，學界與不同執行單位之間的方法使用如何進行整合還需要多做考量。

關鍵字

天然災害 ； 經濟評估 ； 直接損失 ； 間接損失

並列摘要

Taiwan is located in an area with high disaster potential, and hence natural disasters such as typhoons, earthquakes, flooding, and rock collapse often occur. A natural disaster always leads to direct losses of many lives, structures, property, and public works. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive literature review on definitions and methods of various situations for assessing the losses due to natural disasters, to provide a reference for later researchers to develop related evaluation models. This study focuses on analyzing the literature on definitions, classifications, and assessment methods of natural disasters, and classifying the methods of assessing disaster losses, including survey, econometric model, time series analysis, input-output model, computational general equilibrium model, economic growth accounting model, and so on. The results of this study show that from the academic aspect, it is required to carefully analyze the process from causes to results of the disaster; and the corresponding disaster assessment method should be adjusted according to different characteristics of the evaluation targets. During the assessment process, the disaster losses must be first observed, and then be analyzed based on the historical database. With respect to the type of disaster losses, it would be easier to assess the direct disaster loss. The academia has not had the same definition on natural disaster losses, because they adopted different measurement methods and different methods of assessing the loss value. Especially, few previous studies investigated disaster risks and losses on local-level areas. The disaster loss assessment method applied to the current stage of Taiwan is still based on disaster types. More concerns should be made on how to integrate the methods adopted between the academia and different executive units.

並列關鍵字

Natural Disaster ； Economic Assessment ； Direct Loss ； Indirect Loss