摘要
由於電力無法經濟有效地大量儲存，供電端必須保留足夠的餘裕，即備用容量，以應付機組檢修、故障以及負載預測偏差的變化。本研究旨在建立模型，模擬台電的發電系統可靠度，模擬結果包括：各年的發電成本與預期缺電量，以及因缺電所造成的用戶損失。 近年來由於燃料價格上漲，造成台電公司的財務壓力，且台電發電系統的規模不同於八年前(民國91年)，於91年所訂定的系統備用容量率(16%)遂有必要重新檢討。本研究發展模型模擬系統的備用容量率，作為重新訂定系統備用容量率的依據。 本模擬係依據98年台電電源開發方案(9806案)所列之各年發電機組組合，模擬各年在9806案的機組組合下各個機組的發電量，並模擬出系統的預期缺電量。水力、風力機組係依據歷史的容量因數實績估計發電量，而核、火力係採用Block Shift法，模擬機組的隨機故障特性，得出各機組發電量，系統缺電機率與系統預期缺電量。模擬結果顯示：依9806案，系統缺電機率除民國104、105及109年外(104年因為本研究機組歲修排程過於集中，105及109年則因備用容量率低於16%)，其餘各年皆符合我國的缺電機率規劃標準(0.365天/年)。
並列摘要
Due to the fact that electricity cannot be economically stored up in great quantity, the power generation system has to be equipped with enough extra facilities, called Reserve Capacity. The research establishes a model for power supply reliability in Taipower generation system and includes the results as following: the generation cost and expected unserved energy, community cost for power shortage and interruption. In the past few years, the fossil fuel price continually goes up which caused the business operation difficulty in Taipower company. Besides, there has been eight years passed already since that last investigation of the optimal reserve margin of generation system. In order to re-enacting it, this research develops a simulation model. The simulation which based on “Taipower Long-Term Power Development Program (Program 9806)” determined the energy supplied by each generator and expected unserved energy in the system. Hydropower and wind generator’s energy were considered with the historical generation value. By used of the method called: “Block Shift” to simulate Nuclear and thermal energy. The result showed that most of these years the loss of load probability was conformed to our stander (0.365 days per year) except of 2015, 2016 and 2020 (The scheduling generating units of maintenance in 2015 is too concentrated. The reserve margin in 2016 and 2020 are smaller than 16%).