- 學位論文
在金融業務開放背景下以兩岸銀行之經營績效分析探討台灣銀行赴大陸發展策略
Panel Data analysis of Taiwan and China banks investigate the strategy of Taiwan banks to China developing under the background of opening cross-strait financial business
摘要
本論文主要探討在中國政治、經濟地位崛起，兩岸貿易及投資依存度越來越高且台灣核心產業如電子、半導體產業因應ECFA簽訂可能加速西進設廠投資，台灣銀行無法同時跟進導致國內存款無法作有效貸放的背景下，進行實證分析，以作為國內銀行業在兩岸金融實質開放後的建議與策略。本研究採用台灣11家赴大陸設點的銀行及大陸上海證券交易所12家中國大陸銀行，抽樣期間為2000年~20008年9年期間，以資產報酬率（ROA）及股東權益報酬率(ROE)為應變數，資本適足率、逾期放款比率、放款市佔率、營業費用率、存放款利息差距及非利息收入比率6項為自變數進行迴歸分析，結果發現：台灣銀行部份ROA與ROE與資本適足率呈正向顯著影響，與存放款利息差距呈負向顯著影響，顯示台灣國內利息差距即使變大獲利沒有因此正向變動乃是因為存款過剩無法有效貸放所致，過度放款不如維持良好的資本適足率才是獲利的關鍵，其他4項自變數皆與獲利無顯著性，顯示台灣國內市場已趨飽和，進步空間並不大，應即早赴中國設點以開闢新源。在中國大陸銀行部份除放款市佔率與ROA呈不顯著相關外，其他變數皆呈現顯著性，顯示中國銀行業發展潛力之無限成長空間，可進步的空間很多；在ROE部分與逾期放款比率呈負向顯著影響，顯示在中國經營銀行業在放款風險的控管乃是一大重點與挑戰。最後整理出建議有：1.取得營業資格並獲得人民幣承作業務2.客戶定位優先以大陸台商為主當地優良的中小型陸資企業為潛在客戶3.市場定位優先以自身優勢業務為主並善用當地環境優勢4. 重視風險管理及規避潛在經營風險5.合作對象以城市銀行為主。
並列摘要
The thesis aims to conduct a factual validation by exploring the Chinese politics, the emergence of China’s economic standing, the rising dependency of cross-strait trade and investment and how Taiwan’s core industries, such as the electronic and semiconductor industries may likely to accelerate a westward plant launching investment amid the signing of the ECFA, and under the backdrop how the Taiwanese banks are unable to follow suit to result in preventing the local deposits from being lent out effectively, which would provide useful recommendation and strategies for the local bank operators following a tangible cross-strait banking deregulation. The study has taken to randomly surveying 11 Taiwanese banks that launched sales offices in mainland China and 12 mainland Chinese banks listed at the Shanghai Securities Exchange over a nine-year period spanning form 2000 to 2009 using the asset return ratio (ROA) and the shareholders’ equity return ratio (ROE) as the variants, and the six categories of the capital coverage ratio, overdue loan ratio, loan market share, business expenditure ratio, deposit/loan interest parity and interest receipt ratio as the invariants, with which to conduct a multivariate analysis, and the findings reveal: Some of the Taiwanese banks’ ROA and ROE are positively significantly correlated to their capital coverage ratio, and are negatively significantly correlated to their deposit/loan interest disparity, which suggest that Taiwan’s local interest parity that fosters no positive change in profitability, even if expanded, has been the result that the surplus deposits cannot be lent out effectively, and that excessive lending is no better than maintaining a fine capital coverage ratio as the key in profitability; while the other four invariants are found with no correlation to profitability, which suggest that Taiwan’s local market is getting saturated, and as there is limited room to grow, it is prudent for the Taiwanese banks to explore a niche market by setting up shop in mainland China. Among the mainland Chinese banks, besides their loan market share is insignificantly correlated to ROA, and the other variants are all correlated, which suggest that the Chinese bank operators have an infinite room of growth potential, and there is plenty of room to progress; on the aspect of ROE, it is negatively significantly correlated to overdue loan ratio, which suggests that the loan risk monitoring among the Chinese bank operators remains a major focus and challenge. Lastly, the thesis has sorted the findings to come up with a few recommendations: 1. Aiming to secure the operating qualification and obtain the renminbi transaction license. 2. Focusing on Taiwanese businesses of well-run medium and small enterprises operating in China as the potential customer in customer positioning. 3. Focusing mainly on its advantageous operations and making smart use of the local environment advantages in marketing positioning. 4. Emphasizing risk management and hedging potential operational risk. 5. Focusing on urban banks as the cooperation subjects.