台灣地區颱風路徑之預報分析

An Analysis of Typhoon Track Forecast over Taiwan Area

李清勝(Cheng-Shang Lee)

《大氣科學》 16卷2期 (1988/06) Pp. 133-140

摘要

本研究收集了1962至1987年間，中央氣象局所發佈的海上陸上颱風警報單之資料，分析中央氣象局的颱風路徑預報誤差，以及HURRAN法，CLIPER法及ANALOG法等颱風路徑客觀預報方法在台灣地區的可適用性。結果顯示HURRAN法的24小時平均預報誤差最小（170公里），各月的預報誤差亦最平穩。ANALOG法預報誤差之持續特性則較高。中央氣象局的24小時平均預報誤差為（177公里）較HURRAN法和CLIPER法（173公里）為大，但較關島美軍聯合颱風警報中心（JTWC）之221公里為小。然而中央氣象局的颱風預報誤差並沒有逐年減小之趨勢，顯示中央氣象局之颱風預報雖已達國際水準，但是預報方法仍有待研究改進。

關鍵字

颱風 ； 颱風路徑預報 ； 客觀方法 ； 誤差校驗

並列摘要

This report analyzes the applicability of different typhoon track objective forecast schemes over Taiwan area. The official typhoon forecast errors of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) are also evaluated. A total of 26 years (1962-1978) of data determined by CWB during real-time operation are used.Results indicate that the HURRAN method has the smallest average 24-hour forecast error (170KM). The monthly variation of errors is also the smallest. The HURRAN method is the most valuable reference tool during typhoon forecast operation. The 24-hour forecast error of CWB is slightly larger than those of HURRAN and CUPER (173KM) methods, however, the error is considerably smaller than that (221KM) of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. Unfortunately, there is no indication that the typhoon forecast error of CWB is geting smaller over the last 26 years Considerable effort is still needed in order to significantly improve the typhoon track forecast.

並列關鍵字

typhoon ； typhoon track forecast ； object method ； error verification