臺灣及鄰近地區雷雨情況預報之可能方法

A Possible Method (M. O. S.) of Forecasting General Thunderstorm Situation in Taiwan and Its Vicinity

林永哲 ； 亢玉瑾 ； 胡仲英 ； 林民生 ； 林政宏 ； 徐辛欽 ； 劉益靈 ； 陳熙揚

《大氣科學》 5卷1期 (1978/05) Pp. 1-14

摘要

本文採用數值預報統計法，由日本氣象廳使用局部地區原始模式所繪之六十三、四年夏季五個月之數值預報圖中，讀取與臺灣附近（21°－27°N；118°－124°E）雷雨有關之資料或其運算值為預報因子，並以在臺灣觀測之雷達回波為預報目標，求取研究範圍內十六個小區0000Z與1200Z之複廻歸方程。因所用資料之時間過短，且所讀預報因子及預報目標，復限於實際情況，不够準確，所得32個方程，僅十個顯示雷達回波（表示有雷雨）與預報因子間有顯著相關。另以六十五年夏季三個月之資料，對所得公式，加以校驗，亦因全體與樣本數目僅為五與三之比，未獲滿意結果。但對引進新方法與先驅可行性研究而言則均已達成目的。且提供建議，為國內中幅度天氣現象數值預報，預舖良基。

並列摘要

Method of model output statistics has been used to develop multiple regression equations for, thunderstorm forecasting at 0000Z and 1200Z in the 16 subregions in the domain (21°-27°N; 118°-124°E). Predictors were interpolated from prognostic charts of 5 summer months (July-August 1974, June-August 1975) by 6-level fine mesh limited area primitive equation model published by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and predictands were radar echoes observed in Taiwan. Since the data time was much too short and the readings were not accurate enough, only 10 out of 32 equations showed significant correlation between radar echoes (thus thunderstorm) and their predictors. Verifications with data in June-August 1976 were not satisfactory because the number ratio between population and sample was only 5:3 which is certainly statisticliy nonrepresentative. However, we have, as expected, completed the pilot feasibility study and laid a primary foundation for meso-scale weather forecasting.