- 期刊
正壓颱風路徑預報模式之改進研究
A Study of the Barotropic Typhoon Track Prediction Model
摘要
針對中央氣象局作業用正壓颱風路徑預報模式的系統生誤差，本文嘗試由初始場、模式範圍、網格解析度、及數值方法上作改進。我們發現新的模式約能改進15%左右的預報誤差。本文並利用改進後的模式從事大尺度初始分析場及初始颱風位置誤差的靈敏度的測試。結果顯示模式對初始位置的誤差相當敏感，五十公里的初始位置誤差在48小時後的向量誤差約可達400公里左右，而對初始大尺度階析場的誤差較不敏感，絕對值最大為5m/s左右的隨機誤差，在48小時預報後誤差為100公里。
關鍵字
颱風路徑預報模式並列摘要
In order to reduce systematic errors of the barotropic typhoon track prediction model, this paper studies effects of initial data analysis model domain, and numerical methods. We found that the new model are able to reduce the forecast error by 15%. Sensitivity studies of the errors of large-scale wind field and typhoon initial position are also carried out by using the improved model. It is found that the predicted typhoon track is sensitive to the error of initial typhoon position. The position error of 50km initially will increase to 400km in 48 hours. However, the predicted typhoon track is not sensitive to the error of large-scale wind field. The random error with maximum with speed error of 5m/s will produce 100km in 48 hr forecast position error.
延伸閱讀
- 陳玉春（2007）。一參數化颱風模式適用性之探討〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.03372
- 曾鴻陽、蕭玲鳳、陳來發、劉廣英（2002）。颱風預警報作業評估與改進研究。華岡理科學報，(19)，103-134。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=a0000027-200205-x-19-103-134-a
- 黃清勇、李志昕（2009）。西北向侵台颱風中心路徑打轉之模擬研究。大氣科學，37(2)，121-154。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=02540002-200912-201010190070-201010190070-121-154
- 胡志祺（2018）。颱風路徑與強度敏感性分析–系集預報與標靶觀測觀點〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201800500
- Jhong, B. C. (2015). Typhoon Rainfall and Inundation Forecasting Using Support Vector Machines [doctoral dissertation, National Taiwan University]. Airiti Library. https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.00164