人工降水效果評價方法研究

Research on the Method of Evaluating the Efficiency of Intentional Precipitation Experiments

曾光平(Guang-Ping Zeng) ； 吳章雲(Zhang-Yun Wu) ； 朱鼎華(Ding-Hua Zu) ； 鄭行照(Xing-Zhao Zhen)

《大氣科學》 24卷1-2期 (1996/06) Pp. 53-68

摘要

本文在分析各種隨機化和非隨機化人工降水效果評價方案的基礎上，提出一種新的效果評價方案。該方案採用隨機抽樣方法，通過在時空分布存在巨大起伏的歷史降水樣本中尋找出與待作業自然降水樣本無顯著差異的對比樣本方法，對人工降水效果進行定量評價。數值試驗結果表明，降水自然起伏對該方案評價結果的影響遠小於對其它方案評價結果的影響，該方案能在降水自然起伏背景上分析出人工影響的“信號”，準確度高。本文還採用數值模擬方法分析區域雨量相關性、對比樣本和待催化自然樣本相同性的顯著度對評價結果的影響。

關鍵字

人工降水 ； 效果評價

並列摘要

This paper is to propose a new method of evaluating the efficiency of intentional precipitation, based on various randomized and non-randomized intentional precipitation modification experiments. This method will give a quantity evaluation of the efficiency of the intentional precipitation modification by using random samples from historical samples which exist in prominent ups and downs in time and space and finding no obvious difference between the samples and natural precipitation samples. The numerical simulation results show that the effect of the evaluation by this method responding to natural up-down precipitation is much smaller than other method. This method can analyze the ”signal” of intentional modification under the background of the natural up-down precipitation with more accuracy. This paper will also analyze the effective influence of the regional rainfall correlation, samples contrast and natural samples responding to evaluation results by numerical simulation experiments.

並列關鍵字

Intentional precipitation modification ； Efficiency evaluation