中央氣象局區域氣候預報模組對夏季降水年際差異之模擬研究

Simulation Studies on Inter-annual Variability of Summer Rainfall by CWB Regional Climate Forecast Model Set

蕭志惠(Chih-Hui Shiao) ； 莊漢明(Hann-Ming Henry Juang)

《環境保護》 27卷1期 (2004/06) Pp. 57-71

https://doi.org/10.30017/EP.200406.0004

摘要

中央氣象局以其作業用全球波譜預報模式(CWB-GSM)以及相同架構下推衍而出的區域氣候模式(CWB-RSM)成功的建置成一套完整的動力降尺度區域氣候預報模組，本研究即為其初步的測試結果。
本報告分為二部份：首先是針對1998年及2002年台灣地區梅雨期降水的明顯差異，以全球模式分析場作為背景場，進行區域氣候模式的模擬實驗。結果顯示區域氣候模式對1998與2002年東亞夏季環流年際差異的主要特徵有不錯的模擬能力。其二，區域動力模式能提高局部地區地形的解析度，除可改善複雜地勢或海陸分布區域的預報能力外，並可獲得更詳細的區域降水結構，這一點在1998年全球模式與動力降尺度模擬的結果比較中可清楚看出。

關鍵字

區域氣候模式 ； 動力降尺度 ； 東亞地區 ； 梅雨

並列摘要

CWB developed a completed dynamical downscaling regional climate forecast model set. This model set is constructed by its operational global spectral model (CWB-GSM) and regional spectral model (CWB-RSM), which is based on the same structure as in CWB-GSM. And this is the preliminary testing result from this model set.
This report comprises two parts. The first part is to emphasize on the distinct differences of Meiyu rainfall over Taiwan area between years 1998 and 2002. The simulations are conducted by using the regional climate model with the global model analysis as base fields. The results in dicate that the model has the capability to well simulate the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer circulation for years 1998 and 2002. The second part is comparison between global simulation and regional dynamical downscaling on year 1998. It can be seen clearly that the regional dynamical model is able to enhance regional resolution, which not only improves the forecast capability over complex terrain and land-sea regions, but also obtains the fine structure of regional rain fall.

並列關鍵字

Regional climate model ； Dynamical downscaling ； East Asia regime ； Meiyu monsoon rainfall