電動機車政策之效益評估

Assessment of the Electric Motorcycle Policy

劉安錫(An-Shih Liu) ； 徐光蓉(Kuang-Jung Hsu)

《環境保護》 29卷1期 (2006/06) Pp. 57-69

https://doi.org/10.30017/EP.200606.0005

摘要

近二三十年的臺灣經濟快速成長，伴隨產生的不良外部性影響也迅速增加、在環境中累積。這段期間，大眾運輸系統並未與經濟成長同步改進，私人汽、機車數量從1980年到2002年分別增加約14及3倍：至每5人一台轎車，每1.9人一臺機車。1999年正式開始的電動機車計畫希望藉由每台補助6,000至34,000元以電動機車替代汽油機車，降低都會區機車排放空氣污染物量。2001年底發現實際效果與原先預期差距過大，因此於第二年起停止補助。本研究收集各方資料，比較電動機車計畫投入成本，污染物排放量的改變，對民眾健康影響，估算出總效益-54.5億。估算過程中加入許多假設，因此結果仍可能高估。計畫並未如預期進行，最大癥結是民眾的接受程度低：電動機車比傳統汽油機車增添許多‘不便’，民眾不願意接受這些‘不便’換取些許空氣品質改善。未來新類型交通工具若能降低‘不便’，改變民眾意願，仍有許多可發展空間。

關鍵字

電動機車政策 ； 效益評估 ； 污染與健康

並列摘要

Fast economic growth over the past two to three decades not only enhances wealth of general public, it also generated huge quantities of pollutants, accumulated in environment over these years. Mass transit system did not develop along with the economic ones. As a result, numbers of private cars and motorcycles increase by factors of 14 and 3 from 1980 till 2002. Currently every one in five has car, and one in 1.9 owns a motorcycle. Electric Motorcycle program formally started at 1999. With subsidies range from NT6,000 to NT34,000 each electric motorcycle purchased, government hope it can replace the conventional ones in order to reduce pollutants in the cities. It was found in late 2001, number of registered electric motorcycle is far short of initial expectation. Subsidize was terminated next year. This study compares the costs of this program, pollutant emission changes, and subsequent health benefit. Many assumption were made during evaluation, the resulting overall benefit is -5.45 billion NT. Low public acceptance is key for such development. In other words, there are many 'inconveniences' associated with electric motorcycles, and consumers are not willing to exchange their time or efforts for some improvements in air quality. However, if new model can substantially reduce those 'inconveniences', it is possible that people are happy to accept the new vehicles.

並列關鍵字

Electric motorcycle policy ； benefit analysis ； pollution and health