員山子分洪隧道受氣候變遷影響之脆弱度分析

The Analysis of Vulnerability for Yuan-San-Zhi Flood Division Tunnel under the Effect of Climate Changes

賴進松(Jihn-Sung Lai) ； 潘宗毅(Tsung-Yi Pan) ； 童慶斌(Chin-Pin Tung) ； 張國強(Kuo-Chyang Chang) ； 譚羲績(Yih-Chi Tan) ； 林彥廷(Yan-Ting Lin)

《農業工程學報》 55卷2期 (2009/06) Pp. 65-80

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.200906.0005

摘要

本研究分析淡水河流域受到氣候變遷之影響下，對淡水河流域重要水利防洪設施之一之員山子分洪隧道之可能影響。因氣候變遷之影響，未來除了極端氣候事件之強度可能強化之外，極端氣候事件發生之頻率亦可能因氣候變遷之影響而提昇，故爲探討氣候變遷對員山子分洪設施可能之影響，本研究由蒐集大氣環流模式(GCMs)對氣候變遷之預測資料開始，以降尺度模式修正GCMs之預測資料，並應用降尺度模式之結果，預測未來降雨量之變化，之後以降雨－逕流模式計算未來員山子分洪隧道增加之分洪量，研究中將未來之分洪量與員山子分洪隧道之最大分洪量比較後，以脆弱度表現未來員山子分洪可能受到之動擊程度。
由分析結果可知，臺北氣象站於未來短期內，其濕季（5-10月）平均雨量將明顯提昇，因此本研究中針對員山子分洪設施未來可能受到之街擊進行分析，並將分析結果以「脆弱度」指標表示。其結果顯示：若未來全球經濟活動趨向A2情境，則應對員山子分洪設施進行中長期之調適策略規劃，若趨向B2情境，則應著重短期之調適策略規劃。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 降尺度分析 ； 洪水預報 ； 脆弱度 ； 員山子分洪隧道

並列摘要

This study focuses un the impact of climate changes on the Yuan-Shan-Zih flood division tunnel in the upstream of the Tanshui River basin. Being one part of the flood prevention system in Tanshui River basin, the magnitude of impact on the Yuan-Shan-Zih flood division tunnel is determined herein. The study starts from collecting projection data of climate changes from global circulation models (GCMs). Then downscaling models are applied to analyze the magnitude of rainfall under the effect of climate changes. After the downscaling process, we use the downscaled data to calculate the discharge passing through the Yuan-ShanZih flood division tunnel, which represents the impact of the climate changes on the Yuan-Shan-Zih flood division tunnel. Finally, based on the maximum discharge of the Yuan-Shan-Zih flood division tunnel and the calculated discharge, the vulnerability index is calculated to describe the impact of climate changes on the Yuan-Shan-Zih flood division tunnel.
The results show that the rainfall will increase significantly at the Taipei rain gauge during wet season (May-October) in the future. Futhermore, we analyze the impact of climate changes on the Yuan-Shan-Zuh flood division tunnel. The result points out that the vulnerability of the Yuan-Shan-Zih flood division tunnel might reach 100% due to overloading in mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099) period under A2 scenario and short-term (2010-2039) period of 82 scenario. Therefore, the adaption strategy should be applied to mid-term and long-term period if the greenhouse gases emission scenario is close to A2 scenario while the adaption strategy should be applied in short-term period if the emission scenario is likely to be B2.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Downscaling analysis ； Flood forecasting ； Vulnerability ； Yuan-Shan-Zih flood diversion tunnel