近年來,由於社會經濟環境的變遷及人民生活水準提高,民生與工業對水資源的需求量呈現日漸增加趨勢,每當缺水發生時,農業用水往往必須轉移部分水量供給工業或民生使用,因此,現階段如何尋找一個可靠的替代水源是亟需解決的議題之一。本研究係以水平衡理論爲基礎所發展農業區地表水系統,依據土地使用圖層資料將研究區分成五類土地利用型態,配合水文、氣象、地質環境與作物需水量等資料進行區域地表水量推估與流量組成,最後探討不同流量超越機率下農業迴歸水量之大小、特性與穩定可供調配水量。分析結果顯示,試驗區中河川流量大部分來自於農業區迴歸水,在農業總供水量折減50%與河川流量Q80情況下,推估研究區域內2006年二期作期間之穩定日迴歸水量,新屋溪爲12,582 CMD、觀音溪爲3,852 CMD、大堀溪爲38,611 CMD水量可供調配使用。
In recent years, the domestic and industrial water demand have got uptrend gradually because of social and economical environment change and the promotion of living standard. Some of the water has always been transferred from agricultural sector to the domestic and industrial sector when facing deficits. Therefore, how to find reliable alternative water resource in current situation will be one of the most urgent issues need to be solved. In this study, a surface flow system-dynamic model that based on water balance was developed to estimate the quantity of the components of flow. The study area was divided into five categories in accordance with land-use and considered simultaneously hydrological, meteorological, geology environment factors and crop water requirement in model. Furthermore, the amount and feature of agricultural return flow and how much return flow could be transferred stably to other usage sector in different exceeding probability west discussed. Simulation results show a-agreement between observation and simulated value, and reveals agricultural return flow was the major component in river discharge. The reliable diversions were calculated as: 12,582 CMD, 3,852 CMD, and 38,611 CMD in Sin-Wu stream, Guan-Yin stream, and Da-Ku stream respectively, in 2(superscript nd) fanning period of 2006, given Q80 exceeding probability of river flow and 50% irrigation water was cut off.