韌性社區供水系統氣候風險評估與調適能力建構方法之發展

Methodology Development on Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptive Capacity Building of Water Supply System in Resilient Community

李苑華(Yuan-Hua Li)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/博士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201800155

摘要

氣候變遷對水資源造成顯著衝擊與高度不確定性，各領域之決策者必須選擇智慧且彈性之調適方法。為了降低氣候變遷的影響，發展氣候變遷調適之標準流程作為基礎。針對水資源面向，本研究韌性社區定義為「氣候變遷下供水系統具有高回復力與低脆弱度之社區」。本研究以新竹縣信勢社區設計為示範案例，執行供水系統之氣候調適流程。首先設定韌性社區之關鍵議題為供水風險，並分析新竹地區之歷史缺水事件以決定主要風險成因。接著建構社區供水系統模式和社區水資源評估指標系統，應用於評估現況供水風險，而兩者進一步應用低頻率氣象合成模式產生之基期與未來氣象資料，評估未來供水風險。對應風險成因提出社區供水調適措施選項，以強化社區之韌性，由調適目標與調適選項價值決定調適路徑圖。最後實行並監視調適路徑，以預防偏離調適路徑，當預料以外的情況發生時，需要調適路徑修正計畫。
本研究應用設計案例測試調適流程並發展工具。發展社區供水系統模式模擬社區供水情形以及與外部供水系統之關聯。評估指標系統評估社區水資源情況，包含節水率、支撐延時、水分利用效率。而評估未來風險所需之基期與未來氣候情境，由低頻率氣象合成模式繁衍出維持月統計和低頻率特性之日氣象資料。由選擇權定價模型量化調適選項建立調適路徑。本研究為韌性社區供水系統所發展之調適流程、評估指標系統和模擬模式，能夠協助決策者評估社區供水風險及建構氣候調適能力。

關鍵字

韌性社區 ； 低衝擊開發 ； 評估指標系統 ； 調適能力建構 ； 調適路徑

並列摘要

Climate change causes significant impacts on water resources with high uncertainty. Decision makers in all sectors must choose wise and flexible adaptation method. For reducing the impacts of climate change, the standard procedure to develop climate change adaptation is the basis. In the water resources aspect, the resilient community in this study is defines as the water supply system of community with high resilience and low vulnerability in changing climate. This study used a design case which is analogous to the Xingshi village in Hsinchu, Taiwan, to demonstrate the adaptation procedure of water supply system. First of all, the key issue is the risk of water supply in the resilient community, and the historical water shortage events in Hsinchu are analyzed for determining the major causes of risk. The community water supply model and performance indicator system are constructed for assessing the current risk of water supply. And then they are further applied with the low frequency weather generator for generating baseline and future weather data to assess the future risk of water supply. Corresponding to the causes of risk, adaptation options are identified for enhancing the resilience of communities. The adaptation pathway map is decided by the setting target and the values of adaptation options. Finally, the adaptation pathway is implemented and monitored for preventing deviation from the adaptation pathway. When unexpected situations happen, the revision of adaptation pathway is needed.
In this study, the design case is used to test adaptation procedure and develop tools. The community water supply model is developed to simulate water supply situation in the community, and its relationship with the external water supply system. The situation of community water resources is evaluated by the performance indicator system, including water saving efficiency, tolerance duration and water use efficiency. The low frequency weather generator is developed to produce daily weather data to hold the monthly statistics and the characteristics of low frequency for baseline and future climate scenarios to evaluate future risks. The adaptation pathways are established by using the option pricing model to qualify the values of adaptation options. The developed adaptation procedure, performance indicator system, and simulation models for the water supply system of a resilient community are proved to be able to help decision makers to assess the risk of water supply and build the adaptation capacity.

並列關鍵字

Resilient Community ； Low Impact Development ； Performance Indicator System ； Adaptive Capacity Building ； Adaptation Pathway

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