需求導向之灌溉用水量動態模擬系統評估

台灣現行灌溉管理方式是由農田水利會擬定各區域的供水流量與時間，再依照各區域及給水時間順序供水，同一區域內之農民須在預先規劃設定之時間到田區內引水灌溉。考量未來農民可能需要更彈性之供水方式以因應農業經營型態之改變，因此本研究透過整合作物生長之蒸發散過程與農民自主灌溉之行為，以模擬需求導向之灌溉用水量，作為日後「需求導向之灌溉系統設計」之參考。由於估算灌溉用水量涉及地理環境等空間資料與時間動態之過程，本研究亦將整合網格式地理資訊系統（Raster GIS）與系統動態模擬，評估從以往依照各區域及給水時間順序供水之方式，轉為農民自主性灌溉後用水量之差異。本研究採用「個體式模擬（agent-basedsimulation）」方式模擬農民在時間－空間維度相互影響下之灌溉行為，其中將每個田區之農民視為獨立之個體，而這些個體的灌溉行為分別由氣象環境、田區土壤質地、距離前次灌溉天數、田區距離水源距離等因素決定，建立農民灌溉行為影響因素之機率分布後，利用個體式模擬工具評估農民在環境與個體決策差異下之隨機灌溉行為，透過Monte-Carlo模擬後之頻率分析，將可評估輪灌區內灌溉需水量之可能範圍，以期能由隨機模擬建立農民自主需求導向之灌溉用水曲線，作為後續發展需求導向灌溉系統之參考。

關鍵字

灌溉；地理資訊系統；系統分析；個體式模擬；用水管理

並列摘要

Traditional irrigation systems in Taiwan have common disadvantages that irrigation water must be regulated by some rotation criteria which guarantee equal benefits to all farmers. The cropping patterns have to adapt to the irrigation supply schedule and the cultivation flexibility of farmers is limited. Farmers may take more risk facing the challenges in future agricultural business, and increasing flexibility in the irrigation water supply will definitely help. The spatial-temporal distribution of farm irrigation demands is critical data for on-demand irrigation system design. This study integrated raster GIS with system dynamic simulation modeling in simulating farmers' irrigation behaviors and compare on-demand irrigation with rotational irrigation. In this pilot study, agent-based simulation modeling was used for simulating individual farmer's irrigation behaviors based on climate conditions, soil texture, irrigation periods, etc. Monte-Carlo simulation analysis was used for evaluating irrigation water demand in the study area. Probabilistic irrigation demand charts generated from this process could be valuable references for on-demand irrigation system design.

並列關鍵字

Irrigation ； Geographic information system ； System analysis ； Agent-based simulation ； Water management

國際替代計量

需求導向之灌溉用水量動態模擬系統評估

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