利用量化風險感認調查探討土石流災害風險準則擬定之研究

Study on Establishment of Risk Criteria for Debris Flow Disaster using Quantitative Risk Perception Questionnaire

陳皆儒(Jie-Ru Chen) ； 張燕宗(Yen-Tsung Chang) ； 莊睦雄(Mo-Hsiung Chuang) ； 林裕益(Yu-I Lin)

《農業工程學報》 61卷3期 (2015/09) Pp. 42-55

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.201509_61(3).0003

摘要

本研究旨在瞭解民眾對於土石流災害人員傷亡之可容忍風險，進而透過問卷調查法、風險感認量測及F-N曲線分析等方式探討風險準則研擬之方法。首先藉由國內外相關文獻之蒐集，分析與探究民眾對於土石流災害人員傷亡之可容忍風險的內涵因素，以做為問卷發展之基礎。問卷調查所得結果得以運算主觀性風險感認，量化分析民眾對土石流災害人員傷亡之可容忍風險，探討風險準則之擬定原則。調查結果於量化風險評估常用之F-N曲線圖呈現社會之風險感認，當與國際間常引用之香港山崩風險準則進行比較時，本研究所得可容忍風險寬鬆約一數量級。調查結果顯示民眾對於土石流災害之人員傷亡風險準則為風險中立，香港山崩風險準則應用於國內土石流之風險應具有足夠之保守度，相關方法亦可應用至土石流災害財產損失之調查。

關鍵字

土石流 ； 風險準則 ； 風險感認 ； 風險管理 ； 社會風險

並列摘要

The objectives of this study is to understand perception and tolerance of the general public on fatality resulted from debris flow disasters. A risk perception survey was conducted, and analyzed survey results as presented in the form of F-N curves were used for discussion of implementation of risk criteria. In this paper, concept of societal risks and factors to be considered in the survey of risk perception were first discussed. Design of the questionnaire and procedures for quantitative analyses of survey results were then given. As a result, a F-N curve that represents the perception of people in Taiwan on acceptance of fatality caused by debris flow disaster is obtained. Comparing to the commonly adopted Hong Kong risk criteria, it is found that the perception for debris flow fatality in Taiwan has about the same risk aversion tendency. However, the Hong Kong acceptable criterion is approximately one order of magnitude stricter than the result obtained in this study.

並列關鍵字

Debris flow ； Acceptable risk criteria ； Risk perception ； Risk management ； Societal risk