從預期淨值成長分析臺灣農田水利會營運績效－選擇權評價模型應用

The Operation Analysis of the Taiwan Irrigation Association from Expected Book Value Growth - The Option Pricing Model Application

劉瓈琄(Li-chuan Liu)

《農業工程學報》 63卷4期 (2017/12) Pp. 1-17

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.201712_63(4).0001

摘要

本文利用選擇權評價模型估計全國17個農田水利會自2001年至2014年間預期淨值成長率，亦從財務報表計算財務比率，區分都市型、都鄉型與鄉村型農田水利會，利用縱橫資料迴歸分析比較影響預期淨值成長率之因素，實證結果發現，農田水利會預期淨值受財務槓桿、總資產週轉率、淨值報酬率、總資產報酬率等財務比率影響，顯見資本結構控制與資產運用效率提升有助改善農田水利會經營績效。此外，都市型與都鄉型農田水利會預期淨值成長率僅受財務槓桿影響，鄉村型水利會除受財務槓桿影響外，亦受總資產週轉率、淨值報酬率與總資產報酬率影響，究其原因乃都市型與都鄉型農田水利會受惠不動產價格上漲導致資產價值上漲與資產波動性增加；鄉村型農田水利會則於適度節制支出規模，降低營運成本，防止財政收支差短過大，反映其營運績效，研究成果得提供農田水利會做為未來業務精進與財務管理方向之參考。

關鍵字

農田水利會 ； 預期淨值成長 ； 選擇權評價模型 ； 縱橫資料迴歸分析 ； 財務比率

並列摘要

This paper adopted the option pricing model to estimate the expected book value growth rates of 17 Irrigation Associations in Taiwan from 2001 to 2014. All of the Irrigation Associations in Taiwan were divided into 3 categories: urban, rural-urban and rural Irrigation Associations. Based on the financial statements, the financial ratios were calculated. Panel data regression analysis was used to compare the factors which influenced expected book value growth rates. The empirical results revealed that the expected book value growth rate was influenced significantly by financial ratios, such as financial leverage, total asset turnover, return on equity and return on assets. Thus, to increase the efficiency of capital structure management and asset utilization improved operation performance of Irrigation Associations. In addition, the expected book value growth rates of urban and rural-urban Irrigation Associations were affected by financial leverage factors. The expected book value growth rates of rural Irrigation Associations were not only affected by financial leverage factors, but also influenced by total asset turnover, return on equity and return on assets because the price appreciation of real estate benefits in urban and rural-urban Irrigation Associations which results in rising of asset value and increasing asset volatility. For rural Irrigation Associations, their business performance could be achieved by striving to increase the income and moderate expenditure scale, and reducing operating costs to prevent financial deficit. The findings of this research can be the reference for future business progress and financial management for Irrigation Associations in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan Irrigation Association ； Expected Book Value Growth ； Option Pricing Model ； Panel Data Regression Analysis ； Financial Ratio