臺灣地震經濟損失評估模組之建置與應用

1999年921集集大地震造成2,454人死亡、11,305人重傷，總經濟損失高達3,622.8億元，經損嚴重程度排名為全球第13位。由於大規模複合型災害之災後損失評估及調查極為不易，需全心投入花費超過一年以上的時間調查，耗時費力，亦難對於災後復原工作提供即時的助益。故本文依據過去文獻研究及各部會歷年的災損調查成果，結合目前國內地震災害模擬工具，發展對應的經濟損失計算系統，包括：影響戶數、建物、道路、橋梁、供水與供電六項模組，文中透過實際災害事件的驗證，各模組均有不錯評估結果。此系統之建置對於災前的工程效益分析、風險評估，甚至是災後的損失計算等均有很大的助益，可作為國內各項防減災工作之重要評估工具。

關鍵字

地震災害；損失評估；風險分析；臺灣災害損失評估系統

並列摘要

The 921 earthquake in 1999 caused 2.454 deaths and 11,305 serious injuries. The total economic loss was as high as 362.28 billion NTD, and the severity of the damage ranked 13th in the world. As the assessment and investigation of large-scale compound disasters' post-disaster losses are extremely difficult, it is necessary to devote more than one year to the investigation, which is time-consuming and laborious. It is also difficult to provide immediate assistance to post-disaster recovery work. Therefore, this article develops a corresponding economic loss calculation system based on past literature research and the results of disaster loss investigations by various ministries and committees over the years, combined with the current domestic earthquake disaster simulation tools, including households, buildings, roads, bridges, water supply and electricity group six loss modules. Through the verification of actual disaster events, all modules have good evaluation results. The establishment of this system can provide great help to the project benefit analysis, risk assessment, and even post-disaster loss calculation before disasters, and it can be used as an important assessment tool for domestic earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation works.