結婚最佳時機的性別差異：一個以臺灣人口資料的模擬配對研究

我該與眼前這一個結婚？還是等待下一個呢？本文運用理性選擇假設下的「擇偶模擬配對模型」來探討結婚最佳時機的男女差異。本文把「結婚最佳時機」的概念區分為「配對成功率」（代表尋找伴侶的難易）與「擇偶利得」（代表結婚意願的強弱）。個人的擇偶資源（外貌與所得）與婚姻市場（可婚異性與同性競爭者的人數與品質）將隨年齡的增加而改變，故模擬配對後，各年齡層的配對成功率與擇偶利得也將不同。以二○○○年臺灣未婚人口的資料，模擬二十至四十九歲男女的配對，結果發現：（1）女性配對成功率的高峰比男性來得早，但是下降的速度比男性快。（2）男性擇偶利得的高峰發生得比女性早，但在年長時有明顯回升的跡象，女性則在擇偶利得高峰過後一路下降。（3）二○○○年時男女最佳的結婚時機都是在三十至三十四歲，男女性在此年齡層有較高的配對成功率與擇偶利得。（4）女性一旦錯過了擇偶成功率或利得的最佳年齡，其負面後果（成功率與利得的下降）要比男性來得嚴重。（5）男女延遲婚姻的理由並不一樣。男性擇偶利得的高峰比其配對成功率的高峰來得早，想早婚的男性，可能苦於當時配對成功率較低而「不易」結婚。反之，女性擇偶利得的高峰卻比其配對成功率的高峰來得晚，有較高結婚機會的年輕女性可能因擇偶利得較低而在當時「不想」早婚。（6）本文於最後運用上述延遲婚姻的男女差異討論臺灣女性不婚與男性外婚的問題。

關鍵字

擇偶；模擬配對；結婚年齡；婚姻市場；跨國婚姻

並列摘要

This study applies the ”simulation matching model” for ”gender differences on the best marriage timing”. The best marriage timing includes two concepts: the successful mating rate (SMR) which represents the mating difficulty and the mate-selection benefit (MSB) which represents the marriage willingness. In the model, individual's mating resources (physical attractiveness and income) and marriage market (the quantity and quality of the marriageable partner and competitors) will change as individuals' age change. The study has found: (1) the peak of women's SMR comes earlier than men's, but it falls down faster than men's. (2) The peak of men's MSB comes earlier than women's. (3) The peak of men's MSB comes earlier than the peak of SMR. Therefore, those young men, who would be willing to marry earlier, may confront a lower marriage opportunities. (4) In contrast, the peak of women's MSB comes later than the peak of SMR. Therefore, some young women may miss their highest marriage chance in their earlier age and become never married because of waiting and expecting for the higher MSB later. (5) Taiwanese men and women confront a dilemma of marriage decision, in which the peak of MSB and the peak of SMR does not match together.