氣候變遷與耗水產業雙人舞：水資源治理之路徑依賴分析

本文主要探討臺灣面對氣候變遷缺水趨勢下水資源之轉型管理問題。從反身性治理的角度，作者脈絡性的檢視政府水資源治理相關之路徑依賴，並以供給耗水最劇之石化業為主的集集攔河堰與規劃中的大肚攔河堰之爭議案例，分析社會如何朝向永續轉型與創新的可能性。從耙梳水資源治理與決策的制度理性、決策科學知識、經濟模式、社會認知、環境與健康成本、民主參與等弊病，作者指出這些結構性的路徑依賴將臺灣的社會轉型鎖入（locked in）不永續的知識、價值與機制，而嚴重的遲緩社會的轉型與創新。因此建議，臺灣需要重新設定長程的、創新的社會轉型發展路徑，建立動態的水資源轉型管理價值與制度典範，並重擬社會與經濟發展路徑與藍圖。

關鍵字

氣候變遷；永續發展；轉型管理；反身性治理；路徑依賴

並列摘要

This study investigates the transition management problems of water resource under the water scarcity induced by climate change in Taiwan. From the reflexive perspective, the authors examine the path dependence related to governmental water resource governance contextually. By the disputable cases of Jiji Dam, which supplies primarily to the most water-consumed petrochemical industry, and Dadu Dam under planning, the authors analyze how the society could go toward a sustainable transition and innovation. Through detailed reading of malpractices in water resource governance and decision-making of institutional rationality, decision-making science knowledge, economic mode, social cognition, environmental and health cost and democratic participation, the authors point out these structural path dependences would set the social transformation in Taiwan locked into unsustainable knowledge, values and institutions and delay the social transformation and innovation gravely. So the authors suggest that Taiwan needs to reconfigure the long-term and innovative social transition path, to establish dynamic values of water resource management and institutional paradigms, and to redraft the path and blueprint for social and economic development.