國際金融衝擊與產出體制崩潰－雙元匯率制度下的分析

本文以廖培賢及林義豪（民93）引入財富效果的雙元浮動匯率制度模型為基礎，藉以探討在一個實施雙元浮動匯率制度的小型開放經濟體系裡，而且當財富效果相當強烈時，以國際金融干擾導致國內產出水準遞減為因，政策當局固守可接受的國內產出門檻下限水準為果，搭配體制崩潰題材，來分析相關總體經濟變數的動態走勢。結果發現：「本國貨幣需求的利率彈性」的相對大小、「名目貨幣供給變動所造成的產出效果」與「名目貨幣供給變動所造成的名目利率效果」的相對強弱是左右相關總體經濟變數動態走勢的關鍵因素之外，同時政府所能忍受的國內產出門檻下限水準也是決定體制是否崩潰的重要因素。另一方面，政策當局所能容忍的國內產出門檻下限水準的高低與它調整名目貨幣供給量的時機息息相關。如果貨幣當局防衛國內產出水準過度波動的意願愈強，則它將會愈早藉由貨幣政策避免國內產出水準的衰退。

關鍵字

國際金融衝擊；體制崩潰；本國貨幣需求的利率彈性；名目貨幣供給變動所造成的產出效果；名目貨幣供給變動所造成的名目利率效果

並列摘要

This paper extends the theoretical model of Liaw et al. (2004) to a domestic output regime collapsing. For a country adopting dual floating exchange rate system and facing international monetary shocks will cause the domestic output level to decrease persistently. If the domestic output level reaches the domestic output floor threshold, then the monetary authority will adopt inflationary policy. We explored how these shocks will affect the possible adjustment paths of relevant macroeconomic variables. The major findings are as follows. The interest elasticity of domestic money demand, output effect and nominal interest effect which are all induced by change in the nominal money supply are the key factors to affect the possible adjustment paths of relevant macroeconomic variables. Moreover, whether the domestic output regime will collapse or not and the timing of the monetary authority will adjust nominal money supply are depended on domestic output floor threshold. The stronger the desire of the monetary authority to defend the domestic output floor threshold, the earlier. The monetary authority will adopt the monetary policy to attack domestic output which is decreasing.