鋼鐵業熱軋工場焦爐氣消費預測模式之建立

Development of A Forecasting Model for Coke Oven Gas Consumption at the Hot Strip Mill

吳榮華(Rong Hwa Wu) ； 陳家榮(Chia Yon Chen)

《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》 35卷2期 (1991/06) Pp. 64-70

https://doi.org/10.30069/MM.199106_35(2).0006

摘要

一貫作業鋼鐵廠中，熱軋工場之各項能源消費量均很大，其中又以焦爐氣消費之變化最難掌握，造成能源調度作業之困擾。本研究旨在建立可有效掌握熱軋工場焦爐氣消費之模式。研究中以中鋼公司熱軋工場加熱爐為個案，根據分析所得之焦爐氣消費行為，配合實際生產資料，利用滯延分配分析觀念，建立熱軋工場焦爐氣消費預測模式。所建立之模式經過驗證及測試後顯示，此模式可精確反映熱軋工場之焦爐氣消費行為，允可供能源調度中心參考，以有效掌握熱軋工場焦爐氣消費之變動狀況。如此將有助於能源調度中心規劃焦爐氣之使用，防止焦爐氣排放，以收節約能源之功並可避免汚染環境。

並列摘要

The hot strip mill processing represents an energyhungry entity in the integrated steel mill. The consumption of coke oven gas(COG) at the hot strip mill is subject to change drastically. It is desirable to develop a model to monitor the tendency of COG consumption for such an energy consumption system. Therefore, a forecasting model, with the hot strip mill at the China Steel Corporation as a case study, has been formulated via the concept of distributed lags analysis. The validation and test results indicate that the model has been proven to be effective in approximating the actual COG consumption behavior at the hot strip mill. Furthermore, the model provides a useful means for energy engineers in making rational evaluations of COG consumption variations stimulated by changes in operating conditions.