Grey DGM (1,1, f (k, m)) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Per Capita Natural Gas Consumption

Per capita natural gas consumption is a key index to be considered in the planning and design of urban gas pipeline network. There are many influencing factors, which are generally difficult to be accurately determined by conventional mathematical statistics. In this paper, a new grey discrete DGM(1,1, (k, m)) model with time polynomial was given, its prediction formula was deduced, the parameter estimation method was presented, and the initial value was also optimized, which is another extension after DGM(1,1) model, DGM(1,1, k) model and DGM(1,1, k, k^2) model. Finally, the model was applied to predict the per capita gas consumption in Chinese mainland. The simulation results show that the model is reliable.

關鍵字

Grey system theory ； DGM(1,1,f(k,m)) Model ； Per capita gas consumption ； Prediction

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Grey DGM (1,1, f (k, m)) Model and Its Application in the Prediction of Per Capita Natural Gas Consumption

摘要

關鍵字

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