己開發天然氣礦區蘊藏量估算之研究－機率性生產衰減曲線分析與應用

本研究目的係利用決定性及機率性方法分析台灣天然氣礦區的生產資料，以計算礦區的機率性蘊藏量以及機率性生產年限等。在計算時，求取迴歸衰減曲線與資料點之間的殘差機率性分佈後，再將殘差機率性分佈加入衰減曲線方程式之中，利用蒙地卡羅模擬而計算預測礦區的未來機率性生產率、機率性蘊藏量及機率性生產年限等。本研究分別利用決定性分析法、機率性分析法及不確定法分析正在生產中的CS-礦區的生產資料，若經濟極限生產率為5000 KSCM/HY時，由決定性分析法，尚可生產24.93年，蘊藏量為6.22x10^5 KSCM。由機率性分析法，假設指數衰減曲線參數的變動介於±10%之間，平均蘊藏量為6.24x10^5 KSCM，最小值為5.47x10^5 KSCM，最大值為7.03x10^5 KSCM，生產年限介於23.5年至27.5年。由不確定分析法，利用0.5個標準差分析生產資料，所得之蘊藏量介於4.72x10^5 KSCM與7.58x10^5 KSCM之間，其平均值為6.16x10^5 KSCM，生產年限介於21至27年之間，平均值為24.3年。

關鍵字

天然氣礦區；蘊藏量；衰減曲線；不確定法；機率性蘊藏量

並列摘要

This study is a case study to analyze the production history data to estimate reserves and production life deterministically and probabilistically. The selections of ranges of parameters are arbitrary in conventional probabilistic analysis. Instead of varying the parameters arbitrary in conventional probabilistic method, the uncertainty characteristics from production data are estimated and used in probabilistic reserves calculations. By using the uncertainty analysis, the case study of CS gas field are conducted in this study also using the deterministic analysis and conventional probabilistic analysis to estimate reserves and production life. The results from these analysis are also compared. If the economical limit production rate is 5000 KSCM/HY, then from the deterministic analysis, CS gas field can continue to produce for 24.93 years and reserve is 6.22x10^5 KSCM. For the probabilistic analysis, minimum and maximum reserves are 5.47x10^5 KSCM and 7.03x10^5 KSCM respectively. The minimum and maximum production lifes are 23.5 and 27.5, respectively. For the uncertainty method using 0.5 standard deviation of residuals to analyze data, reserve is between 4.72x10^5 KSCM and 7.58x10^5 KSCM, and the production life is between 21 and 2.7 years (average is 24.3years).

並列關鍵字

Gas field ； Reserves ； Decline curve ； Uncertainty method ； Probabilistic Reserve

國際替代計量

己開發天然氣礦區蘊藏量估算之研究－機率性生產衰減曲線分析與應用

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