我國電力缺口因應策略之權衡分析

Trade-offs Analysis on Electricity Coping Strategies in Taiwan

張景淳(C. C. Chang) ； 吳榮華(J. H. Wu) ； 鄭詩妤(S. Y. Cheng)

《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》 58卷1期 (2014/03) Pp. 31-44

https://doi.org/10.30069/MM.201403_58(1).0003

摘要

2011年3月日本福島核電廠災害，引發各國對於核能安全之關切；有鑑於此，政府於同年11月頒布《新能源政策》，希望可以確保穩定供電、維持合理電價，並達成國際減碳承諾。有鑑於《新能源政策》為重大議題，本研究以系統動態學方法，建立經濟─電力─環境系統模型，並設計模擬情境，以《新能源政策》及《永續能源政策綱領》為依據，進行模擬評析，以供決策單位之參考。本研究先針對台灣在不同之核能商轉方案下，分析未來是否有電力供需缺口之疑慮；其次，分別由供給面、需求面與價格端，研議因應策略選項，以探討台灣未來之電力供需狀況。最後則組合上述三構面，設計四項情境，進行電力供需平衡之權衡分析。模擬結果顯示，若台灣核一至核三屆期除役，不論核四是否商轉，未來會有電力供需缺口之疑慮；其次，供給面、需求面與價格端之個別策略選項，未能解決電力供需之缺口。而情境模擬結果顯示，單以電力供需平衡而言，情境一至情境四皆可有效改善電力供需缺口；在國內生產毛額方面，情境一（供給面與需求面）之影響最小；而在電力消費之CO2排放方面，於情境一至情境四之模擬下，無法達到政府於「永續能源政策綱領」宣示之目標。本研究情境模擬之策略意涵如下：1.欲解決電力供需缺口，亦考量經濟發展，除了可在供給面積極發展低碳能源的使用之外，亦可由需求面藉由技術進步提升能源效率，但其附加代價為二氧化碳排放之增加。2.欲解決電力供需缺口，亦考量環境永續之理想，除了可由需求面藉由技術進步以提升能源效率，亦可由價格端提高電力價格，減少電力消費，但其附加代價係對經濟成長造成影響。

關鍵字

經濟─電力─環境 ； 新能源政策 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

Since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011, the nuclear power safety and energy policy reform have become urgent worldwide issues. In response to the event, the Government issued ”The New Energy Policy” to ensure a resilient power supply, to maintain reasonable electricity pricing, and to achieve CO2 reduction commitments to UNFCCC.Considering the importance of ”The New Energy Policy”, we developed an economics-electricityenvironment model using system dynamics approach to systematically investigate the impact of ”The New Energy Policy.”This study used the system dynamic model to analyze whether there would be a power gap under the different nuclear power supply plans in the future. With reference to the ”New Energy Policy” we developed a series of scenarios using the supply side, the demand side and the pricing mechanism. Based on the above scenarios and system dynamic modeling, this study conducted trade-off analysis on electricity supply-demand strategies in Taiwan.Our trade-off analysis results showed that if the first, second and third nuclear power plant shut down on the designated dates, it would have a power gap in the future. They also showed that the power gap can be solved by many of the scenarios, except for the CO2 reduction commitments to UNFCCC.The following strategy implications of this study can assist decision makers make the best choice for Taiwan:• Either the development of lower carbon energy use on the supply side, or improving energy efficiency on the demand side can avoid a power gap and improve economic growth. However, either cannot mitigate CO2 emission.• For the ideal sustainable environment, it may be prudent to increase electricity price to reduce electricity consumption. But, the price increase may have adverse impact on the economic growth.

並列關鍵字

Economics-Electricity-Environment ； New Energy Policy ； System Dynamics