我國能源轉型政策對電力供給規劃之影響

The Impact of Taiwan's Energy Transition Policy on Power Supply Planning

李信(H. Lee) ； 楊逸亞(Y.Y. Yang) ； 吳榮華(J.H. Wu) ； 黃韻勳(Y.H. Huang)

《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》 64卷3期 (2020/09) Pp. 9-21

https://doi.org/10.30069/MM.202009_64(3).01

摘要

我國《能源轉型路徑》中規劃：2025年達到發電占比燃氣發電50%、燃煤發電27%及再生能源20%之目標，以降低碳排放量並增進國家能源自主。本研究將儲能系統的引入作為情境之一，同時亦考量2018年底所通過的能源公投案，將反燃煤公投、反空汙公投以及以核養綠公投做為限制式，放入情境設計中，探討公投限制下各類發電機組發電量變化，重新審視未來電力規劃。本研究使用電力供給規劃模型模擬我國民國108～114年之電力開發規劃結果，此模型為考量台灣各發電機組，以最小總發電成本為目標式，並考量各機組供電能力、原料供應與能源供需平衡…等限制。分析結果顯示，民國108～114年我國之備用容量率均滿足15%之規範，若能達成能源轉型路徑之目標，則總二氧化碳排放量將降為113.2（百萬公噸），單位發電成本則為3.04（元／度）。引進儲能系統情境，在民國114年時再生能源發展順利達標下，若將6組鋰離子電池（100MW／400MWh）置入電網，將造成單位成本增加約0.09～0.16（元／度）。在公投限制下，若擬至2025年前持續年減1％火力發電，則須大幅增加再生能源發電或將核能列入選項。依現有機組新增及退役規劃，若將公投結果視為兩年效力，則於民國110年前可符合公投規定、無缺電疑慮，民國110年至111年間則須加速再生能源建置，以因應核能機組退役填補非火力發電缺口。

關鍵字

能源轉型路徑 ； 電力供給規劃 ； 儲能系統 ； 2018公投

並列摘要

The ＂Energy Transition Path＂ in Taiwan plans to achieve the goal of power generation 50% from gas-fired power, 27% from coal-fired power and 20% from renewable energy by 2025, in order to reduce carbon emissions and promote national energy independence. Renewable energy has intermittent uncertainties, thus, the introduction of energy storage systems (ESS) will effectively smooth the supply of renewable energy. Therefore, this study considers the application of energy storage systems as one of the scenarios. At the same time, considering the energy referendum passed at the end of 2018, ＂Against air pollution＂, ＂Against coal fired electricity output＂, and ＂Go nuclear to go green＂ referendum results were used as restrictions. Those were incorporated into the scenario design to explore the changes in power generation of various types of generating units under the limits of the referendum. This study simulates Taiwan's power supply planning from 2019~2025 based on ＂Simulation Model for Aggregate Generation Expansion Planning (SMAGE-II)＂. This model considers the various generating units in Taiwan, taking the minimum total power generation cost as the objective function, and considers the power supply capacity of each unit, the supply of raw materials, policy restrictions, the power supply limitation of the energy storage system, and energy supply and demand balance as restriction functions. According to the research results, on the basis of decommissioning and renewing of the current power units, the reserve margin of Taiwan from 2019 to 2025 meets the statutory standard (i.e.15%). If the Energy Transition Path is reached in 2025, the total amount of CO_2 emission will be reduced to 113.2 (million metric tons), and the unit cost of power generation will increase to 3.04 (NTD/kWh). In the scenario of applying energy storage systems, if the renewable energy development successfully reaches the goal in 2025, the unit cost of using lithium-ion batteries to store 10% of electricity from renewable energy will increase by 0.09~0.16 (NTD/ kWh). Under the limits of the referendum, nuclear power can be extended to meet the restrictions; or the capacity of future solar photovoltaic and offshore wind installations must be increased to 156% of the current plan, and renewable energy can exceed 30% of the total power generation to meet the annual reduction of 1 % of thermal power generation limit in 2025.

並列關鍵字

Energy Transition Path ； Power supply planning ； Energy storage system ； 2018 Referendum