刊事案件上訴最高法院重要因子之研究

本研究之目的係為探求影響刑事當事人是否提上訴三審尋求救濟之重要因素，以提供政府單位制定政策、擬定法律草案及法官判案之參考，可預測上訴上級審受理刑事案件量。本研究利用2004年1月至12月間由臺灣高等法院審結之3,930筆可上訴案件資料，並以「是否提上訴」為反應變數，再透過羅吉斯迴歸(logistic regression model)建立模型，並探討反應變數與可能影響變因之關聯性。研究結果顯示：發現「案件特性」及「判決內容」與「上訴與否」存在很高的關聯性，且透過參數勝算比(odds ratio)可得知重要因子與「上訴與否」之勝算倍數關係，並與國內法律學者看法一致，故可提供法官、立法者及司法行政機構參考，以提高我判品質並降低上訴案量，俾符合司法正義。

關鍵字

刑事上訴；羅吉斯迴歸；勝算比

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to identify factors that influence whether the party makes an appeal to the Supreme Court. This study uses 3,930 cases that satisfy the legal provisions from Superior Court and terminated in 2004. The logistic regression is used to examine the relationship between partys' characteristics and outcomes that is whether to appeal to the Supreme Court. According to the results of study, the characteristics of cases and the contents of judgement are associated strongly with appeal. These finding are consistent with the opinions mode by jurisconsults. Thus, the quality of trial and the number of caseloads may be improved through changing the characteristics of cases and adjusting the content of judgement. The findings can be used to help administrators in making the policy or framing the legal draft or making the judgment. The result from the building model can be used to forecast criminal caseloads of the supreme court.