我國農地運用與變遷之研究

The Trend of Farmland Utilization in Taiwan

陳惠欣(Hui-Hsin Chen) ； 孫珮瑛(Pei-Ying Sun) ； 周怡伶(Yi-Ling Chou) ； 徐宏元(Hung-Yuan Hsu)

《中國統計學報》 52卷3期 (2014/09) Pp. 397-420

摘要

在全球化及氣候變遷之衝擊下，農地資源保育及糧食安全備受重視，且我國自2000年農業發展條例修正發布後，轉向「放寬農地農有、落實農地農用」（管地不管人）之管理政策，未來如何促使農地資源永續利用實為不容忽視之課題。為研析我國農地管理與利用改善之道，本文運用1990年、2005年及2010年之農林漁牧業普查資訊，以地理資訊系統之空間分析呈現20年間各縣市農用可耕作地絕對分布及相對分布變遷情形，發現農用可耕作地有逐年集中於8大農業縣市之趨勢，且以雲林縣、嘉義縣、彰化縣為要，然南投縣可耕作地部分受農平地造林政策影響，其不僅集中率降幅最大，且農用可耕作地對該縣的重要性亦相形降低。成長曲線模型進一步離析20年間各鄉鎮市區農用可耕作地消長因素，發現其與農業勞動力、可耕作地規模有關。為改善可耕作地利用效益及提升農家競爭力，本文以灰關聯及資料包絡法分析可耕作地之主要產出作物－稻作，萃取出影響其銷售收入之關鍵因素，探討該作物經營效率及提升效率之要素，供為農政單位及農家經營者未來農業經營決策之參考。

關鍵字

區位商數 ； 地理資訊系統 ； 時間成長模型 ； 灰關聯分析 ； 資料包絡分析

並列摘要

Due to impact of globalization and climate change, farmland resource conservation and food security are attracting increasing attention in Taiwan. Beginning with the revision of the Agricultural Development Act in 2000, ensuring the sustainable utilization of farmland resources will be an important issue. In order to analyze the reform of farmland management and utilization in Taiwan, this paper used data from the 1990, 2005, and 2010 Agricultural, Forestry, Fishery and Animal Husbandry Census in conjunction with GIS spatial analysis tools to represent the absolute distribution and relative distribution of cultivated land in county/city of Taiwan. We found that cultivated land had gradually become concentrated in eight major agricultural cities and counties, and the most important of these consisted of Yunlin County, Chiayi County, and Changhua County. For its part, Nantou County had experienced the largest reduction in concentration rate and location quotient of cultivated land. This paper also utilized a growth curve model to analyze the factors inducing the change of location quotient of cultivated land in individual cities, townships, and districts over the past 20 years, and it indicated that these change to be connected with the structure of agricultural labor force and scale of cultivated land. In order to enhance cultivated land utilization and farmers' competitiveness, this paper employed grey relational analysis and data envelopment analysis to examine key factors affecting gross income of the rice planting enterprises, which was the main industry of national farm households, and investigated the business efficiency of rice cultivation and key means of improving efficiency. The results of this study may serve to guide future agricultural management decisions by agricultural agencies and farm managers.

並列關鍵字

location quotient ； geographic information system ； growth curve model ； grey relational analysis ； data envelopment analysis

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