Dynamic Estimation of the Number of Goals Scored by a Team in a Football Match

足球比賽中一支球隊全場進球數之動態估計

汪清波(Qing-Bo Wang)

《中國統計學報》 52卷4期 (2014/12) Pp. 421-434

摘要

在這篇文章中，我們建立了一個數學模型，用來在足球比賽的進行過程中動態地估計一支球隊全場的進球數。建立模型的依據是這支球隊的歷史數據和臨場表現。作為應用，我們用這個模型來分析2013-2014賽季阿森納足球俱樂部的三場比賽。最後，我們將這個模型與其他簡單的模型做了對比並闡述了此模型的優點。

關鍵字

動態估計 ； 次序統計量 ； 極大似然估計 ； Glivenko-Cantelli定理 ； 足球

並列摘要

In this paper, we set up a mathematical model to estimate dynamically the number of goals scored by a association football team in a match according to the team's historical data and performance when the match is on process. As applications, we analyze three matches of Arsenal Football Club in 2013-2014 season using the model. Finally, we compare the model with some simple models and illustrate our model's advantages.

並列關鍵字

dynamic estimation ； order statistics ； maximum likelihood estimation ； glivenko-cantelli theorem ； association football

參考文獻

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