- 期刊
旅遊業市場干擾、旅遊財價格與匯率目標區
Tourism Market Disturbance, Tourism Price and the Exchange Rate Target Zone
摘要
本文主要探討在資本完全移動的情況下，政府藉由財政政策設立匯率目標區時，當經濟體系面臨來自旅遊業市場之隨機干擾時，匯率是否會因為設立匯率目標區而變得相對穩定以及是否必須付出旅遊財價格波動幅度作為代價，本文發現：(1)當旅遊業市場出現隨機干擾時，政府宣示實施匯率目標區，是否具有蜜月效果，須視財富效果的相對大小而定。(2)財富效果相對較大的情況下，匯率是否存在蜜月效果以及旅遊財價格穩定與否需進一步視本國旅遊消費支出之相對大小而定。(3)財富效果相對較小的時候，匯率必定存在蜜月效果；而其旅遊財價格是否穩定需視旅遊財價格之預期變動與匯率之預期變動相對大小而定。
並列摘要
Under the assumption of free movement of capital, governments normally set up the exchange rate target zone via the fiscal policy when their economies facing the tourism market disturbance. This paper shows how the establishment of exchange rate target zone to affect the stability of the exchange rate and to raise the possibility of paying a larger volatility of tourism price to the economy. We found that whether the honeymoon effect from the exchange rate target zone exists depending on the relative magnitude of wealth effect. Moreover, under the situation of a larger wealth effect, the relative domestic tourism expenditure determines not only the existence of honeymoon effect, but also the stabilities of the exchange rate and tourism price. In contrast to above situation, the exchange rate does exist the honeymoon effect when the relative wealth effect is smaller. Further, the stability of tourism price will be decided by the expected changes of both tourism price and exchange rate.