Have library access?
  • Journals


Can "Worse than Death" Become "Back from the Dead"? Effects of Natal Subsidy Policies on Fertility in Taiwan



Parallel abstracts

Can "Worse than death" become "Back from the dead?" Faced with the trend of declining birth rates, several countries and cities in Taiwan have introduced numerous policies related to pre- and postnatal subsidies. This article initially consolidates factors influencing birth rates, encompassing economic, demographic, and environmental aspects. It constructs a model of birth rate determinants, integrating the housing-to-income ratio as part of the economic factors. This study aimed to observe the impact of the recent surge in housing prices on birth rates and identify significant influencing factors through regression analysis. Furthermore, utilizing the difference-in-difference method, this study validates the effectiveness of various pro-natal subsidy policies implemented by local governments in recent years to enhance birth rates. Empirical results indicate that, without considering the effects of specific years, the "Pre-pregnancy Health Checkup" policy in New Taipei City is effective. In fixed-effects models, the "Pre-pregnancy Health Checkup" and "At-home Postpartum Care Service" policies in Taichung City were also found to be effective. However, almost all other policies implemented by different countries and cities have shown limited effectiveness in increasing the overall fertility rate. Moreover, higher rates of female labor force participation in demographic factors, along with higher unemployment rates and housing-to-income ratios in economic factors, are associated with lower birth rate growth. Nevertheless, the crude marriage rate in terms of demographic factors, positively impacts birth rates.


王德睦與張國偉,2010,「台灣女性初婚率的量與步調」,臺灣社會褔利學刊,8:29-66。(Wang, T. M. and K. W. Chang, 2010, “An Analysis of First Marriages among Females in Taiwan”, Taiwanese Journal of Social Welfare, 8: 29-66.)
王德睦、董宜禎與陳昭榮,2013,「臺灣生育率的空間模式與變遷:地區擴散模型之分析」,臺灣社會褔利學刊,11:31-67。(Wang, T. M., Y. J. Dong, and J. R. Chen, 2013, “The Spatial Pattern of Fertility in Taiwan: A Diffusion Approach”, Taiwanese Journal of Social Welfare, 11: 31-67.)
尤智儀與李玉春,2016,「縣市生育津貼政策對夫妻生育意願之影響」,人口學刊,52: 43-79。(Yu, C. Y. and Y. C. Lee, 2016, “The Effects of County and Municipal Baby Bonus Policies on Fertility Intentions”, Journal of Population Studies, 52: 43-79.)
伍大開、陳翊芯、陳國樑與羅時萬,2023,「財產稅租稅資本化:縣市合併升格的準實驗分析結果」,人文及社會科學集刊,35:111-153。(Wu, D. K., Y. S. Chen, J. Chen, and S. W. Lou, 2023, “Property Tax Capitalization: Evidence from the Municipal Merger Reform in Taiwan”, Journal of Social Sciences and Philosophy, 35: 111-153.)
李春長、梁志民與林豐文,2017,「捷運系統對鄰近住宅價格之影響—以差異中之差異法估計」,台灣土地研究,20:31-58。(Lee, C. C., C. M. Liang, and F. W. Lin, 2017, “The Impact of the Taipei Mass Rapid Transit System on Nearby Housing Prices: An Estimation Using the Difference-in-Difference Method”, Journal of Taiwan Land Research, 20: 31-58.)